Posted on 07/10/2008 5:37:37 PM PDT by markomalley
New Mexico Tech chemistry professor Oliver Wingenter and his colleagues believe modest fertilization of the Southern Ocean with iron might help slow some of the effects of global warming.
The concept of climate engineering – or geo-engineering – has scientists, activists and politicians debating the ethics and merits of environmental manipulation.
Wingenter has conducted ship-board experiments, fertilizing two small patches of the Southern Ocean with iron to study the atmospheric effects.
He said small-scale fertilization may abate the loss of Antarctic ice. The general principle involves seeding the ocean with a liquid slurry of iron sulfide.
German and Indian scientists are causing a furor by carrying out a massive iron-fertilization experiment in the Southern Ocean, which is the globe-circling ring of ocean just north of Antarctica.
They have proposed fertilizing 100 percent of the Southern Ocean, which they say would return the oceanic ecosystem to its natural balance.
They are examining how much carbon dioxide is drawn down from the atmosphere into the ocean.
Wingenter’s proposal is much different. He is firmly in the middle of the debate. Instead of creating an artificial “carbon sink,” his research shows that minimal iron fertilization will create brighter clouds, which will help keep the Antarctic atmosphere colder.
He proposes fertilizing less than 2 percent of the Southern Ocean with iron – but only after thorough computer modeling analyses can be completed and a slow field ramp up is implemented.
“We’re doing it slowly, in stages,” he said. “We’re not foolish here. We need to do the modeling and small-scale studies before the environmental situation becomes desperate.”
Wingenter is currently on sabbatical from his post as professor of chemistry at Tech. He, Tech student Juston Moore and Scott Elliot of Los Alamos National Laboratory are leading the effort to model Wingenter’s hypotheses.
His initial article elicited a written comment from his colleagues at the University of East Anglia in England, who disputed the veracity of Wingenter’s calculations. Their disagreement is about the margin of error. Their reply and Wingenter’s rebuttal will appear in an upcoming issue of the journal Atmospheric Environment.
The science behind Wingenter’s proposal is like a domino effect. Phytoplankton consume iron, but the Southern Ocean lacks enough iron for the microorganisms to flourish. The plankton produces dimethyl sulfide, which evaporates and eventually becomes cloud-condensation nuclei. An elevated level of cloud-condensing nuclei in the atmosphere creates brighter-than-usual clouds, which reflect more sunlight back to space.
Wingenter hypothesizes that careful seeding could help suppress atmospheric warming around Antarctica.
That will be of great concern to coastal regions, because current forecasts predict the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could slide into the Southern Ocean within the next century, causing the global sea level to rise six meters.
Wingenter’s research aims to prevent that and buy time for the global scientific community and energy industries to mitigate the carbon-dioxide dilemma and to develop alternatives to fossil fuels.
Tech vice president of research and economic development Van Romero said Wingenter’s research is important for the understanding of complex global systems.
Iron fertilization is a hotly-debated issue among oceanographers. Some scientists propose wide-scale fertilization, while others consider it the worst form of geo-engineering.
Indian scientists say iron fertilization will encourage rapid growth of phytoplankton, microscopic animals that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Their goal is to fertilize the entire Southern Ocean. Experts largely suspect India and China will launch large-scale projects in an effort to buy carbon credits as they prepare to sign the Kyoto Protocol.
On the other hand, Ecuador wants to ban iron-fertilization altogether … presumably because the process might have an adverse effect on its fishing industry.
The United Nations is discussing iron fertilization and is considering a ban.
By fertilizing a small portion of the Southern Ocean, the increased level of iron will only be noticeable for one season, Wingenter said.
He said fertilizing 2 percent of a large test area, perhaps 10 percent of the Southern Ocean, would cost as little as $1 million to $2 million.
He summarized his research in a 2007 article published in Atmospheric Environment. In that article, Wingenter explained his preliminary proposal. Citing other oceanic and atmospheric studies, he estimates that fertilizing 2 percent of the entire Southern Ocean would result in a 2 degrees Celsius decrease in average temperature over the Southern Ocean.
“My proposal must only be viewed as a stop-gap measure,” Wingenter said. “The real cure for global warming will come only when we curtail emissions of greenhouse gases.”
This is the type of article that will play with the Santa Fe know-nothing liberals, but for the rest of us, it reinforces that New Mexicans are nut-cases.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.