R2000: Obama Holds Double Digit National Lead

Politicalwire ^ | 27 July 2008 | Taegan Goddard

[LS]

I think this one is probably accurate. What we are going to see is that negative ads against Obama probably won't work---those already disinclined to vote for him wouldn't vote for him anyway. But many people will view negative ads as 'racist,' or 'unfair,' or 'politics as usual.'

In retrospect, the ONLY thing that could have beaten Obama---save huge, serious gaffes---would be a candidate with real conservative positions who could clearly articulate them. People have to have something to vote FOR, esp. in an election about "change" as every election where there is no incumbent automatically is. McCain simply has nothing to vote FOR.

[LS]

This is the same dismissal of polls that we saw here in 2006. This is not a close race. McCain trails in FL, CO, MI, NM, and depending on the poll, OH. The only state (which he should be safe in) where he has a lead is MO. Even VA is close. Yes, he’s ok in some of the southern states where Obama originally thought he could make a dent-—NC, AK, GA. But don’t be fooled. Right now this is a 330 electoral victory for Obama, but it could swing much worse.

[avacado]

"I think this one is probably accurate."

See my post #60 above your post. Research 2000 shows McCain ahead???

[pieceofthepuzzle]

You may be right, but the dynamics of this election are somewhat unique and nothing would surprise me.

[DarthVader]

The bigger the sample the higher the confidence level in the data and this study has a code so you can only vote once. A poll like this represents a trend and a growing anti-Obama sentiment nationwide amongst voters from all spectrums.

I have dealt with scientific studies with careful sampling that haven’t beem worth a cup of warm spit.

[andy58-in-nh]

Research 2000 = pollster for Daily Kos and Huffington Post.

Take all results with a mountain of salt.

[HamiltonJay]

I ain’t buying this one, no respectable pole to date has shown Fauxbama and McCain at anything more than a statistical dead heat nationally... now this group is showing a double digit lead out of nowhere? No way, not unless they were polling folks in the middle east or europe.

[moose2004]

Barr will poll close to 1% in November, and he won’t be on more than 20 ballots.

[moose2004]

Hello Michelle, do you and Barry remember when you said this in Chicago in 2004?

[moose2004]

He’s ahead of McCain by 12 in CA.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

[Sooth2222]

Rasmussen's latest polls has Obama leading by five -- 49-44

Rasmussen has it 45-48 Monday morning. (Likely voters, and Friday, Saturday and Sunday polling, usually bad for Republicans. I'd guess 3 points for the "Bradley effect" and I'd call that about even.) I have no idea which pollster it is, but it looks like somebody is sure doing some inaccurate polling.

[LS]

Got me. Weird. That’s the FIRST and only poll I’ve seen anywhere that nationally had McCain ahead, let alone ahead substantially.

[LS]

I agree, especially with the “Wilder effect” of people not telling pollsters the truth.

[According2RecentPollsAirIsGood]

It says here from Research 2000 aka Kos Poll that McCain is leading????

Friday ... 7/25/2008 ... 9 am

A new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of MS LVs, conducted 7/21-23, shows McCain leading Obama 51-42%. McCain led the previous poll, conducted 5/19-21

This is actually a poll just for Mississippi. Notice the "MS LVs" which stands for "Mississippi likely voters." A lot of their results on that site are written in shorthand, so it's easy to miss something. However, there is also a blog entry right below that post which states "In Mississippi, McCain leads 51% to 42%..."

I see a lot of Huffington Post references on this site. =|

[avacado]

Ooooops! Thanks for pointing out the ‘MS’ part of that poll! That makes a difference to say the least!

[BOBTHENAILER]

I considered him for awhile because I saw a recent program on PBS that showed Dem after Dem still seething with rage that Nader caused Gore to lose FL to Bush in 2000, setting the stage for "Unites We Stand" after 9-11-2001.

I sure hope that we don't have the same fate....cursing Barr & Nader for McCain's loss.

Holding my nose also, but I prefer nasal scar tissue over skull fracture; which will happen to us if the Obamination's brown shirts take over.

[Forward the Light Brigade]

U don’t think that would be enough to stop the Obama Machine. It would need to be corruption on a grand scale or a Homosexual relationship. I can’t see Hillary getting the nod now—The Democrats are firmly in the tank for Obama—they will win or lose with him—unless something happens like RFK.

[Ingtar]

...unless something happens like RFK

I keep seeing the scenes from the original Manchurian Candidate when I think about this. The candidate dead, blood all over Hillary as she rises to give a speech calculated to win.

[NYC Republican]

Nice catch!

[NYC Republican]

MeanMachine was 100% right. It WAS flawless... to the hordes of sheeple that get their news from 10 second soundbites... or the front page of their local lib papers...

The way the MSM portrayed it, it was a slam dunk... We know that reality differs greatly, but how many folks are really objective about it, or expend the time to flip past the front page of the paper?