Posted on 07/29/2008 9:08:15 PM PDT by doug from upland
First Hour: Brigadier General Amy S. Courter comments on the possibility that Steve Fossett faked his death. Then, geologist Jim Berkland talks about today's quake in So. Cal.
LISTEN ONLINE ON KFI IN LOS ANGELES - 10 P.M.
Bio
Geologist Jim Berkland was suspended from a California Government Geology Job when he made a prediction that a major quake would occur during the 1989 World Series in the Oakland Bay Area. It hit and the government told him to not make any more predictions. Now that he is retired, he publicly states quake windows. Mr. Berkland uses tidal flooding tables based upon Lunar Perigee (time when the moon is closest to earth to affect more gravitational pull on the earth).
Is there actual documentation that this guy predicted the World Series Quake?
On June 21, Berkland predicted on CoasttoCoast a window of 7 days, beginning on July 29, for a quake hitting Los Angeles.
http://www.gilroydispatch.com/opinion/177793-jim-berkland-quake-prophet
OPINION
Unrated
Jim Berkland: Quake Prophet
Jan 26, 2006
On October 12, 1989, a county geologist named Jim Berkland put his professional reputation on the line. He called The Dispatch and predicted that an earthquake with a magnitude between 3.5 and 6.0 would hit the Bay Area sometime between October 14 and 21. On October 17, the 6.9 magnitude Loma Prieta quake struck, flattening the Cypress elevated freeway structure, dropping a section of the Bay Bridge, demolishing buildings from Santa Cruz to San Francisco, and killing more than 60 people.
Obviously, Mr. Berkland received undying fame and the respect of his peers. His method for predicting earthquakes underwent a thorough peer-review, and a refined method is now being used to predict earthquakes and tsunamis.
Right?
Wrong.
Jim Berkland received some short-lived media attention and a two-month suspension for scaring people and predicting quakes on county time.
He has been laughed out of the US Geological Survey. Berkland claims a 75 percent success rate in predicting quakes with his method. His peers pooh-pooh his claims.
Berkland‚s methods may be unorthodox, even quirky, but we cannot dismiss his predictions out of hand.
First, he is a trained geologist. His “windows” based on tidal stresses caused by conjunctions of the sun and moon, have been accepted in the geological literature for decades as having a definite, though small, effect.
Secondly, we admire a man who is willing to put his professional reputation on the line for what he believes to be the truth.
Thirdly, his success in predicting quakes, most notably the Loma Prieta, but many others as well, ensures that if Jim Berkland calls The Dispatch with another prediction, we will certainly listen.
Fourthly, this is earthquake country. Berkland’s work serves as a reminder to be prepared. Maybe the Big One will not occur during his next window, January 27 through February 3, within 140 miles of Mt. Diablo.
But it will happen sometime and someplace. Water and batteries, anybody?
Jim Berkland and his biographer Cal Orey will be signing books at Barnes and Noble at Gilroy Crossing, January 29, 2 pm.
Editor’s Note: A 3.7 magnitude quake struck northeast of Morgan Hill Wednesday, two days before Berkland predicted and within the 140 miles of Mt. Diablo.
He used to have a web site, I think it was called Zyzygy.com, or something like that. Used to visti it all the time. Haven’t been able to find lately.
His ideas about the gravitional forces of the sun and the moon have been declared by many to be discredited.
Yet, both the sun and the moon exert tidal forces on the Earth twice a day, and a difference between high and low tide of 12-16 feet is quite an extreme.
GPS and laser tech have measured this to be actual rising and falling of the Earth’s crust in the few-inches range.
May not sound like much. But sometimes it doesn’t take much.
My personal belief is that the greatest stress comes around time of the new moon, especially near solar eclipses. Think about it. The side of Earth that is approaching dawn is headed towards the sun and the moon, thus being sped up due to the gravity.
Meantime, the side of the Earth that is at dusk or a bit after is going away from the moon and sun, but will experience a tendency to be slowed down.
Can’t speed up the rotation on one side but slow it down on the other side without there being some pretty huge stresses going on.
People often talk about statistics and numbers of quakes and frequency and all that.
Which may be somewhat relevant when you are talking about records that span tens of thousands of years or so.
But totally useless for the short term. Earthquakes are by their very nature catastrophic events, subject to catastrophe theory, and their basic property is that they are unpredictable.
I put the hotlink to his website in the original post.
Predicting earthquakes is like predicting the rain, predict often enough and you’re bound to be right sooner or later.
Thanks, Doug!
Yeah, but if you include factors like temperature, and humidity, and cold/warm air boundaries, you are going to be right, a lot more.
Try http://www.syzygyjob.com/ . :-)
Hey Doug, if you had been having that dinner ‘under the stars’ with Hillary tonight, you could have asked her “did the Earth move for you?” LOL
There is nothing wrong with this guy’s theory, and it can predict the likelihood of an Earthquake, in selected areas.
But, not all earthquakes are caused by the same thing.
And many of them have a combination of ‘causes’.
And some of these causes we are unable to measure, at this time.
But, for earthquakes near the coast, his data is relevant.
I am afraid that the Secret Service would have me out of there within 30 seconds.
Who is Steve Fosset?
Earthquakes are natural events. The generation of earthquakes is governed by physical laws. The fact that we can not accurately predict earthquakes is due to our limited knowledge of the material and mechanical properties of the earth’s composition.
As our knowledge of the earth increases so will our ability to predict earthquakes.
It is only a matter of time.
I knew you were going to say that!
Thanks for posting this article.
I find this subject fascinating.
Millionaire adventurer in balloons and gliders. Apparently, he might have had serious business problems. He supposedly disappeared in a plane crash, but some suspect he faked his death.
Seismic Information: There are no special study zones in the City of Upland, The Upland Earthquake happened on February 28, 1990, with its epicenter located about 3.5 miles northwest of Upland in the Unincorporated area north of Claremont. The earthquake measured 5.5 on the Richter Scale.
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