Posted on 07/30/2008 10:15:35 AM PDT by Born Conservative
Paul Kanjorski’s re-election campaign could be in trouble, according to a Washington, D.C., political handicapper.
The non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report has changed its analysis of the 11th Congressional District race between Kanjorski and Republican challenger Lou Barletta to “Toss-up/Tilt Democratic.” The contest previously was described as leaning Democratic.
Kanjorski, a 12-term Democrat from Nanticoke, is airing early ads to “try to boost his standing,” according to the latest Rothenberg report.
Barletta, the Hazleton mayor, challenged Kanjorski in 2002. Kanjorski won by 22,000 votes in the heavily Democratic district. A Republican has not held the seat since Jim Nelligan rode Ronald Reagan’s coattails to victory in 1980 after the resignation of Daniel J. Flood.
The Rothenberg Political Report, a non-partisan newsletter covering federal and state politics, interviewed 11th District voters, and reviewed poll results – but not those commissioned by the candidates.
Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the report, said he interviewed Barletta a week ago.
“Paul Kanjorski is in trouble – serious trouble,” he said.
Rothenberg said the combination of hard data and the quality of Barletta as a candidate translates into trouble for Kanjorski.
“We know Kanjorski and his reputation,” Rothenberg said. “The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Kanjorski are already advertising and they don’t do that unless they are worried.”
The latest report findings were greeted with enthusiasm by local Republican leaders and dismissed by the Kanjorski camp.
“These rating services rely on propaganda from the national party committees for their rankings,” Kanjorski campaign spokesman Ed Mitchell said. “Unfortunately for us, the Republicans seem to be doing a better job at that. After all, they don’t have too many races to talk about that are competitive, so they focus on Barletta, whom the GOP is bankrolling. The only ranking that counts is the results on Election Day.”
Barletta’s rise to favorite status did not surprise local Republicans Steve Urban and Paul DeFabo. Both said they believe Kanjorski is vulnerable and that Barletta can win.
“We’ve known all along that Barletta has an excellent chance of winning,” said DeFabo, second vice chairman of the Luzerne County Republican Party. “All Republicans are working to help him get elected. I personally think Lou is going to win and people will be surprised at the margin of victory.”
Barletta will open an office near Public Square soon, DeFabo said.
Urban, Republican county commissioner, said he recognized Barletta’s popularity more than a year ago when he was with the Hazleton mayor at a Mohegan Sun event. Urban and Barletta were talking outside the casino for 15 minutes – and all the while Urban said people continuously approached Barletta to shake his hand and encourage him to run.
“That said a lot to me,” Urban said. “The public knows who he is and they want change. Lou Barletta is the right man for change in this district. It won’t surprise me at all if he wins.”
Rothenberg expects 2008 will be a strong Democratic year, and said Kanjorski is one of a handful of Democrats facing serious challenges.
Barletta campaign manager Vince Galko said Washington insiders are beginning to see the energy that he senses is in the district.
DeFabo, who is working on the Barletta campaign, said: “Change is in the air, especially in the 11th District.”
What the Rothenberg report said “U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski is in trouble. Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, who has gained national attention through his efforts to crack down on illegal immigrants in his city, ended June with $322,000 in the bank. He is extremely personable and has terrific personal poll numbers.
“Kanjorski has plenty of cash ($2.17 million on hand on 6/30), and is running media to try to boost his standing. The DCCC is up with ads too, a sure sign of concern. Polling shows district voters want a change, and Kanjorski and Barletta are running within a few points of each other. A major Democratic migraine. Move to Toss-up/Tilt Democratic.”
Please God, let freedom ring on election day
Go Barletta!
Is’nt this the democrat who admitted they lied about leaving Iraq just for votes?
I was in my hometown this weekend. I visted their local
campaign office to contribute.They said that the district
was trending to the Mayor.I really hope so,but the district
is Democratic.
Aren’t there a dozen potientiel ‘pickups’ in the house?
Delay’s old seat, Foley’s old seat in Fla., and Jim Ryun in Kansas. How happy are the people in NH that elected a flaming lib to congress.
Is Murtha callenged by LTC Russell in PA?
Anybody seen any polls?
Barletta could be a major force in politics in 10 years. He is a sharp guy, well-spoken, good character. Watch for him to be Governor at some point, maybe even higher.
he’s a CROOK....typical democrat, and he will WIN AGAIN.
Yes he is.
Don’t hope, that’s for the Messiah followers. Make a donation. I’m doing it right now.
Pete Olson is running in Texas against Lampson - who proudly advertises himself as a “Blue Dog”. Lots of local and D.C. money and influence behind Olson - former USAF. Really nice guy with good agenda. We’ll see. Also met his wife - he definitely won’t be a lap dog for Pelosi!
Great news out of Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. If Barletta is breathing down Kanjorski’s back now, wait until Election Day gets closer and area Democrats find out about Obama’s voting record. If blue-collar and rural Democrats in PA don’t like Obama now (and they don’t, as the PA primary proved), they’ll positively detest him come November. Depressed Democrat turnout in the district combined with (i) Kanjorski’s corruption and (ii) Barletta’s local popularity, socially conservative positions and success in combating illegal immigration should give us an excellent chance of picking up a seat that we haven’t held in over a quarter century but which gave President Bush 47% in 2004 (up from 43% in 2000).
We should definitely have at least a dozen potential pick-ups in the House, although, unfortunately, the Democrats may have even more potential pick-ups than we do (unthinkable after the 2006 elections, in which the Democrats picked up most of our low-hanging fruit and had many fluke winners).
Murtha’s in trouble in 12th district... the challenger is LtCol William Russell (www.williamrussellforcongress.com). He’s an Iraq war vet and combat veteran, conservative all the way and he’s been out raising Murtha 3-1 for the last few months. I’m from NH and I even sent him money!! He’s gotta go. Kanjorski too — if we can hammer his earmarks to his relatives’ companies (he was featured on FoxNews’ documentary on earmarks last month... great piece by Chris Wallace). And in NH we’re having a battle for 1st district — Carol Shea-Porter, yes, a flaming lib but VERY vulnerable! We’re hammering her in letters to the editor and we even protested one of her community visits.. I think we can make her history. Another PA district that we might win is Sesak’s down in Delaware Co (where I grew up). So we could take quite a few seats back in the House. Key issues will be illegals, drilling, and taxes. Unfortunately, there are alot of districts that have grown accustomed to government handouts... like Murtha’s. Good luck down there.
Everyone should go to the Times Leader link in this post and leave a comment supporting the Mayor and opposing Kanjorski.
I suspect Odumbo's coattails might be a little short in Luzerne county.
Thanks for the info.I hoping that Lou carries the day.
Great News!!!!!!!
I think Sestak has a very good chance of losing in the 7th.
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