Monday, August 11, 2008 3:50:05 PM · by JerseyHighlander · 2 replies · 328+ views
THE CENTRE FOR RUSSIA AND EURASIA ^ | February 2004 | THE CENTRE FOR RUSSIA AND EURASIA
Posted on 08/11/2008 3:49:14 PM PDT by traumer
The US military was surprised by the timing and swiftness of the Russian military's move into South Ossetia and is still trying to sort out what happened, a US defense official said Monday.
Russian forces surged into the breakaway region last week after weeks of clashes, threats and warnings between Tblisi and Moscow which culminated August 6 in a two-day Georgian offensive into South Ossetia.
That the two countries were on a collision course was no surprise to anyone, but the devastating Russian response was not expected, officials said.
"We were tracking it earlier in that week and we knew that things were escalating," said a military official, who asked not to be identified. "I can tell you it moved quicker than we anticipated that first day."
But how it unfolded is still unclear, clouded by conflicting claims from both sides.
"I think a lot of what you're asking needs to be ironed out," said the official.
"Some of these little issues are definitely still big questions in this event -- What was the intent? Who started it? Why did they start it? And why weren't they prepared to defend what they started?"
President George W. Bush, who urged Moscow to cease fire and return to pre-August 6 positions, charged in a televised statement that Russia's intention appeared to be depose Georgia's democratically elected president.
But the extent of the Russian operation remained unclear to US officials on Monday.
Georgian officials said Russian troops had moved out of South Ossetia into Georgia proper, occupying the city of Gori while Georgian troops were retreating to the capital.
But US defense officials said they were unable to corroborate the Georgian claims.
"We don't see anything that supports they are in Gori," said a defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "I don't know why the Georgians are saying that."
"That assessment is ongoing," said Bryan Whitman, a Pentagon spokesman.
The United States has among the most powerful tools for monitoring brewing conflicts, from spy satellites to reconnaissance aircraft and drones capable of scooping up radio signals or capture real-time images of forces on the ground.
But the extent to which they were trained on this remote conflict before it turned violent is not known.
The Russians, however, warned on August 3 of a growing threat of "large scale military conflict" between Georgia and South Ossetia.
The State Department issued a mild statement on August 5 urging Moscow to refrain from provocative actions, but gave no hint that it was aware that military action either by Georgia or Russia was in the offing.
Officials have suggested the fighting was not seen as an immediate threat, in part because there were only about 95 US troops and 35 civilian contractors in the country training Georgian troops for Iraq. And they were not near South Ossetia.
Some 1,650 US troops conducted a joint exercise with the Georgian military in mid-July. But they were out of the country when the hostilities flared.
At around the same time, the Russian military deployed 8,000 troops to the North Caucases for counter-terrorism exercises that Moscow said were unrelated to the tensions with its southern neighbor.
The US defense official said about 8,000 to 10,000 Russian troops have moved into South Ossetia. They also have flown SU-25, SU-24, SU-27 and TU-22 fighters and bombers during the campaign.
But the official said there was no obvious buildup of Russian forces along the border that signaled an intention to invade.
"Once it did happen they were able to get the forces quickly and it was just a matter of taking the roads in. So it's not as though they were building up forces on the border, waiting," the official said.
"What are their future intentions, I don't know. Obviously they could throw more troops at this if they wanted to," he said.
“The US military was surprised... and is still trying to sort out what happened “
Makes one wonder how many people in the Pentagon actually knew that there are TWO Georgias...
This statement suggests that we weren't 'looking', ie. we didn't have any satellites looking down on the area. Ooops.
I would imagine they knew darn well what was going on. Your comment is pure US Military bashing.
no big shock we were caught flatfooted. Our MI assets are focused on the middle east and SW Asia. We should have expanded the military years ago.
Looks like the State Dept. misinterpreted the situation....again.
We're not going to learn much about the actual facts until this has played out for a while, and if the MSM has anything to do with it (which they do) we will never know the facts.
“The red thingie is moving toward the green thingie....I think we’re the green thingie.”
This is not your father's decrepit, collapsing, post-Soviet Russian Army.
“The US military was surprised... and is still trying to sort out what happened “
Oh, great! Just F**** great!..
What’s the next surprise?
Let’s be clear here, The US military was NOT surprised by the amount of available military equipment and units on the Georgian border. The US military HAD observed the increased Russian deployments starting April 8th on the outskirts of Vladikavkaz (capital of North Ossetia, southern most military base in the Russia Caucasus, and center of Russian operations against Chechnya.)
What was a surprise is the strength in numbers of the deployment into South Ossetia and Abkhazia, AND the use of Air and Naval assets outside of South Ossetia and Abhkaz so quickly and in such great numbers.
This article is a lot of smoke and mirrors by the Pentagon, specifically to cover for 15 years of failed State Dept and Executive branch policy positions on the Caucasus’ conflicts.
ANY QUESTIONS ?
They were checking out Atlanta...
DoD thought it was OK because that’s where Jimmy the peanut farmer is from.
But the official said there was no obvious buildup of Russian forces along the border that signaled an intention to invade. .......................... BS! You can bet your sweet bippie this was planned, sand tables and all. This is like Mac Arthur in Korea, no mass formations of Chinese troops were seen in the area, and then out of nowhere here comes 300,000?
I agree, had that thought earlier today and posted some background info on journal articles analyzing post 2nd Chechen war South Caucus Russian military doctrine.
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