NATO Now!

Kyiv Post ^ | Aug 13 2008 | Staff

[Paine in the Neck]

Russia’s successful blitz through South Ossetia, Abkhazia and other parts of Georgia was a rude wake-up call. Other than Tbilisi, the capital most in shock is Kyiv. Just over a week ago, the thought of Russia invading Ukraine to solve territorial or political disputes -- such as the simmering one in Sevastopol over the Russian Black Sea Fleet -- was ludicrous. After the events in Georgia, it is not so laughable.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs must be disconcerted by the ineffectual European, American and world response to the crisis. While Russians bombed and paratroopers rolled into Georgia, the West bombarded the Kremlin with diplomatic dispatches.

Ukraine finds itself in a precarious geopolitical situation. Russia truly represents a threat to an independent Ukraine. Moreover, Ukraine - like Georgia - is facing this threat on its own. The nation’s leaders must finally realize their isolation and vulnerability.

After wasting 17 years on political squabbles fueled by the redistribution of Soviet-era wealth, the nation is not secure. Ukraine, stuck between Hitler and Stalin in World War II, doesn’t have a favorable geographic position or friendly neighbors. Instead, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is reported to have openly sneered at the idea of Ukraine being a sovereign nation.

Russia’s adventurism in Georgia was meant to send the bluntest of signals to its neighbors: “Don’t get too cozy with the West, because we rule this region.” The fossilized communists and other Kremlin toadies all too willingly obey. But such a subservient response will only take Ukraine backwards.

To the contrary, the solution is for Ukraine to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization military alliance. Ukraine will have a better fate with NATO, a grouping of 26 democratic European and North American countries, rather than with Kremlin autocrats.

“NATO now!” should be the new rallying cry for all politicians in Ukraine. But as we have seen, the Kremlin-friendly Party of Regions and ex-Prime Minister Victor Yanukovych are determined to block and delay.

The desire of France and Germany not to irritate Russia, which supplies a quarter of Europe’s natural gas, is blamed for the April decision at the NATO summit in Bucharest to delay the membership applications of Ukraine and Georgia.

Ukraine’s political divisions and the ambivalence of average Ukrainians also contribute to wariness from the West. It’s all the more unfortunate because, outside of the three Baltic states, Ukraine and Georgia are the only two relatively bright spots for democracy among the 15 former Soviet republics.

Ukraine needs to take a couple of other steps as well.

Faced with a resurgent Russia, Ukraine’s military needs billions of hryvnias to improve its readiness and bring it closer to NATO standards. Ukraine’s leaders should also press for an earlier exit of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet from the nation’s territory than 2017, the year the current agreement expires.

It’s hard to say exactly who is to blame for the start-up of the hostilities between Georgia and Russia. Did South Ossetian separatists provoke Georgia with violence? Or did Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili blunder by invading the separatist province without anticipating the fury of the Russian response?

Either way, Ukraine and the Caucasus have similar circumstances that make them ripe for provocations.

Ukraine has a large ethnic Russian population that the Kremlin courts in its unyielding opposition to attempts at Western integration and NATO membership. Crimea has plenty of Russian troops and Russian passport holders, creating the opportunity for Kremlin leaders to justify an invasion as essential to protecting its citizens, as they did in South Ossetia.

Ukraine can start with a public education campaign on the benefits of NATO membership. With all the disinformation out there, such information is essential. But a campaign will take time and money to change public opinion.

Western leaders, meanwhile, should recognize that their ambivalence to Ukraine and Georgia is encouraging Russia to menace and threaten beyond the Caucasus and Black Sea.

[Paine in the Neck]

Some measure of what Ukrainians are thinking just now.

[gridlock]

NATO should meet and offer a one time deal to the former Eastern Bloc. Membership today or never. That would end this intimidation once and for all.

[mbarker12474]

The Russians should be explicitly asked which of their cities are worth trading for an interest in South Ossetia.

We’ll supply the missiles. The Ukranians, Georgians, Poles can set them up and aim ‘em.

[AprilfromTexas]

I doubt anyone knows better than Yushchenko how underhanded the Russians can be.

[ETL]

I doubt anyone knows better than Yushchenko how underhanded the Russians can be.

Yushchenko: Russia blocking poisoning probe
By Bonnie Malkin and agencies, September 12, 2007

Mr Yushchenko before and after the poisoning

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has said officials in Russia were hindering an investigation to determine who was behind his poisoning during the 2004 presidential election campaign.

The president told The Times Russian laboratories were refusing to provide samples of the dioxin poison, even though he had discussed the matter with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin. He also said Russia was refusing to extradite three suspects.

"Three laboratories in the world were producing dioxin of this formula. It is very easy to determine the origin of the substance; there is nothing magical about it," he told the Times.

"Two laboratories provided samples but not the Russian side. This, of course, limits the possibilities of the investigation process."

Mr Yushchenko, a pro-European politician who wanted to bring his country out of Russia's shadow, fell seriously ill on September 6, 2004 as he was competing in presidential elections against a pro-Moscow candidate, Viktor Yanukovich, now prime minister.

After months of tests in an Austrian clinic, it was determined that he had ingested a massive amount of the poison dioxin.

Although he survived, his face was left bloated and pockmarked, and he has had to undergo regular treatment to rid his body of the toxin.

In an interview with Le Figaro he said he believed the dioxin used to disfigure him was made in a Russian lab.

Mr Yushchenko did not directly accuse the Russian government of being behind his poisoning, but he did say he had "practically put all the pieces together" and the attempt against him "was not a private action".

"The investigators know when, what meal, where, who. There is information on three key people who are in Russia," he said, adding that he had spoken about the matter to Russian President Vladimir Putin last December.

"Since then, unfortunately, there has been no response. I am convinced that after these people are questioned the facts will be proved."

Mr Yushchenko told Le Figaro that his pro-European instincts were unchanged, and that he still intended to have his country one day join NATO.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1562838/Yushchenko-Russia-blocking-poisoning-probe.html

[hellbender]

Yet another example of how having large alien ethnic groups is not good for a nation's internal stability and external security. Something the open-borders, unlimited-immigration types in the U.S. completely ignore.

Texas was pried away from Mexico after Anglo colonists became dominant there. Mexican intervention in Texas then led to a war in which the U.S. acquired the area of our southwestern states. Belgium has chronic problems with Flemish vs. French speakers, Canada with Quebec, Rwanda with Hutus vs. Tutsis, etc. etc. Ethnocentrism is one of the strongest human motives, and demography is destiny.

[bereanway]

One look at Yuschenko tells everything you need to know about Putin and the Kremlin. No doubt he feels he’s got nothing to lose.

[NeoCaveman]

Would we really be willing to go to war over the Ukraine?

Seriously?

What would be the national interest in doing that?

[mel]

When you see something like that, it makes statements such as Mrs. Obama that she is now proud of her nation seem so utterly nonsensical.

[xkaydet65]

See the Post thread above from DEBKA that Merkel has agreed to a natural gas deal with Iran. . If true what does that tell you about NATO? We’re better off throwing in with Poland, Hungary, Ukraine, the Balitics etc. and no longer counting on our supposed NATO allies. The people and leaders of the ‘near abroad” states remember all too clearly the evils of totalitarianism. The West thinks totalitarianism can be mutated into a nanny state.Jonah Goldberg’s Liberal Fascism comes closer to reality than I think he realized when writing his book.

[boomop1]

NATO is a joke.

[Forward the Light Brigade]

Ukraine will never be part of NATO. The Russians will intimidate them with oil and gas. Before long they will move into the Crimea and make it part of Russia. The Russians will let Ukraine keep their independence—for now. What will Europe do? What will the USA do? Zip. We can talk, stamp our feet and hold our breath but what can we do? Fight?

This is one reason Obama must never be president—he is a weak fool and encourage Russia to more misadventure’s.

[conservativehusker]

“Would we really be willing to go to war over the Ukraine?

Seriously?

What would be the national interest in doing that?”

Would you allow a friend and Ally to fall behind the “Iron Curtain” ???
..Dominoes my friend . Dominoes...I don’t think war is needed just showing them we mean business will be enough..they have a lot of money but they are not yet powerful enough to match us in a fight...

[MarMema]

A perfect solution. Really, it is. You have just posted the perfect solution. It would be so easy.

[NeoCaveman]

Would you allow a friend and Ally to fall behind the “Iron Curtain” ???

Nations don't have friends only interests.

And I wouldn't bluff on something like adding the Ukraine in NATO if we weren't serious enough to live up to the commitment to defend them if attacked.

[SeeSharp]

Would we really be willing to go to war over the Ukraine?

I would.

What would be the national interest in doing that?

Have you seen the women?

[Forward the Light Brigade]

What happens if Mexicans take over the state of New Mexico? What if they change the name to Nuevo Mexico and make Spanish the official language? What if Mexico granted all new Mexicans dual citizenship? What if the new state declared independence? and had an election to re-join the Mexican Republic? What if Regular troops of the Mexican army—labeled peace keepers, Came in to keep the US from controlling the state? What if US Troops were beaten back my crack Mexican Rangers with the best tanks of Russia? Fantasy yes—but a bit like whats happening in Georgia.

[conservativehusker]

And I wouldn't bluff on something like adding the Ukraine in NATO if we weren't serious enough to live up to the commitment to defend them if attacked.

AGREED..! Wars have started for less...but I think it would be a shame if we let these fledgling democracies get gobbled up by the bear..(Old cold war veteran here!)

[NeoCaveman]

What happens if Mexicans take over the state of New Mexico?

Ask me again in about 20 years.

[SJSAMPLE]

“if”?