Posted on 08/19/2008 3:20:44 PM PDT by Flavius
Does anyone else get the feeling that Putin is peeing in his own soup? While he is busy stirring up all kinds of hornet’s nests on Russia’s western borders, the Chinese are multiplying in the east, just waiting to pounce on the resource rich areas that are sparsely populated by Russians, whose birthrate is dwindling. Maybe the plus side of this situation is that the Russians wake up, smell the coffee, and scrap this KGB demon?
Easier said than done. The pipelines by which Russia sells gas to EU pass through Ukraine. If Ukraine is not supplied, they can shut down the pipeline entirely, and Russia's gas flows to NOBODY, and Russia doesn't get paid
All Russia has to do is cut off the oil and gas supplies, wreck their internet, close the borders and Ukraine is up the Creek. I don’t think the pro-western government would last long once the hurt starts. That and the Russian Army could roll in before the Ukrainians could mobilize. The Bear will let things cool down—if they are not provoked.
bttt
Approximate numbers from Wikipedia.
Russian MBT 22,000
Ukraine MBT 4,000
Russian Interceptors 1,200
Ukraine Interceptors 277
Russia is currently conducting an invasion on its southern border and it also has a large territory to defend. My guess is they could commit 1/2 of their forces to a Ukraine invasion if they wanted. So Russia would only have a 2 to 1 advantage if no one from NATO helped Ukraine. The internal problems caused by the Russian citizens in Ukraine will magnify the Russian 2 to 1 advantage. Russia could take the Ukraine but it will be costly for both sides unless the Russians employed Tactical nukes.
Belarus MBT 1,800
Belarus Interceptors 63
That means that Russia and Belarus combined would have a definitively 3 to 1 advantage plus the internal unrest factor from millions of Russian citizens. The war however will be difficult and will probably be very costly in human live.
We should seriously consider building some nuclear power plants in Ukraine. They can be U.S. owned and operated. If we start now, they'll be online when the lease expires for Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
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