Posted on 08/19/2008 3:20:44 PM PDT by Flavius
KIEV, Ukraine - Russia's foreign minister warned Ukrainian leaders Tuesday against trying to restrict the Kremlin's use of a Crimean naval base it leases from Ukraine, adding to tensions that have heated up since Russian troops invaded Georgia.
Ukraine's pro-Western president, Victor Yushchenko, has sided with Georgia and moved last week to restrict Russian warships at the leased military base at the Black Sea port of Sevastopol, saying the vessels' movements were subject to Ukrainian approval.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Russia will think a lot harder about taking on Ukraine than Georgia. The Ukraine has a much better and larger military. They can call up a million men if necessarily if memory serves.
I don’t think Russia wants to light that fuse.
I think Russians would threated Ukraine and back down like little crying little b***h
They don’t want open up that cans of worms
Maybe they could find some legal loophole to jack up their lease.
Is there a country Russia has missed warning? Have they remembered to warn Costa Rica to save them some bananas?
Russia is going to play schoolyard bully till someone does something forceful....
your memory serves you well!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Ukraine
The Ukrainian military has 149,000 active; 1,000,000 reserves
Who is that going to be? We’re alittle tied up right now and the EU has chicken hearts for brains.
My advice to both Ukraine and Poland. Develop a SUBSTANTIAL scout / sniper civilian force. Like on the order of 25,000. Equip them with current optics, sound suppression and night vision equipment. Train them to operate in small autonomous teams and conduct coordinated sniper attacks.
My advice would be that once they’ve dont that, they better hock the national treasury to buy the latest american drones, missiles, radar, and artillery.
I think it is past time that the former republics form an alliance like NATO. Russia can’t take them all on at once but they can sure as hect knock them off one at a time.
OK- so what kind of event will Russia engineer to have an excuse to go storming in to the Ukraine?
Russia’s lease on that base is up in 9 more years.....
Ukraine is already messing with the Russians, there, in terms of maintenance of certain lighthouses, etc, that are not within the Russian base, itself, but are still important to navigation in and out of the harbor....
Ukraine is already pretty much leaning against renewal of the lease...saber rattling and overt action by Russia are simply going to seal the deal...
If the Russians really want their Atlantic and Mediterranean fleets to have Archangel as their “warm water port”, then they simply have to stay on the course that they are currently traveling....
OK- so what kind of event will Russia engineer to have an excuse to go storming in to the Ukraine?
http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6193&Itemid=65
Russia Blockades Port in Georgia and Seizes Soldiers
THE NEW YORK TIMES
August 19, 2008
By C.J. CHIVERS and ANDREW E. KRAMER
KARALETI, Georgia — Russian soldiers in armed personnel carriers blockaded the main commercial port in the Black Sea town of Poti on Tuesday and took Georgian soldiers prisoner.
An explosion could be heard from the port, where Russian troops sank Georgian ships earlier this week. An Associated Press report said 22 Georgians were being held.
The situation was evolving, but if Russian forces have seized control of the port it is further evidence of continued Russian military activity on Georgian territory despite reassurances that they would withdraw.
more....
All Russia has to do is cut off the gas to Ukraine like they’ve done before.
There are Russians in Crimea? That is putting it mildly. The Crimea is mostly populated by Russians. The whole eastern part of Ukraine is also heavily populated with Russians. This is a possible excuse for the Russians to organize a “break-away” movement like those in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Adjaria in Georgia. In case of conflict, there would be many ethnic Russians who would serve as a pool for recruiting “militia” thugs and sabotaging the Ukrainian defenses.
The Ukrainian army is puny next to Russia’s.
The best policy is to allow time for Ukraine to develop economically and strengthen militarily over the next nine years, and then simply do not renew the lease. Or make it year-by-year based on Russian good behavior, and cooperation in opposing islamic terrorists, instead of Russia’s reflexively helping every whacko, dictatorial or anti-Western regime from North Korea, to Iran, to Zimbabwe.
If this is to be a cold war, the West can win it as we did the first one. A rich and strengthening Poland and Ukraine will look pretty good against the Bialorussian stagnating dictatorship, and will beat that sort all along the line, possibly without even having an all-out war. I mention Bialorus because it is supported by Putin, and represents his way for states bordering Russia. That is a pretty dark and unattractive picture for the people of those areas.
There are also enough Soviet/Russian holdouts in the Ukranian military to cause real trouble should Russia go to war with the Ukraine.
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