Russia warns Ukraine not to interfere at navy base

ap ^ | 8/19/08 | ap

[jttpwalsh]

Does anyone else get the feeling that Putin is peeing in his own soup? While he is busy stirring up all kinds of hornet’s nests on Russia’s western borders, the Chinese are multiplying in the east, just waiting to pounce on the resource rich areas that are sparsely populated by Russians, whose birthrate is dwindling. Maybe the plus side of this situation is that the Russians wake up, smell the coffee, and scrap this KGB demon?

[PapaBear3625]

All Russia has to do is cut off the gas to Ukraine like they’ve done before.

Easier said than done. The pipelines by which Russia sells gas to EU pass through Ukraine. If Ukraine is not supplied, they can shut down the pipeline entirely, and Russia's gas flows to NOBODY, and Russia doesn't get paid

[sionnsar]

Russia is going to play schoolyard bully till someone does something forceful....

[Forward the Light Brigade]

All Russia has to do is cut off the oil and gas supplies, wreck their internet, close the borders and Ukraine is up the Creek. I don’t think the pro-western government would last long once the hurt starts. That and the Russian Army could roll in before the Ukrainians could mobilize. The Bear will let things cool down—if they are not provoked.

[ConservativeMan55]

bttt

[justa-hairyape]

The Ukrainian army is puny next to Russia’s.

Approximate numbers from Wikipedia.

Russian MBT 22,000
Ukraine MBT 4,000

Russian Interceptors 1,200
Ukraine Interceptors 277

Russia is currently conducting an invasion on its southern border and it also has a large territory to defend. My guess is they could commit 1/2 of their forces to a Ukraine invasion if they wanted. So Russia would only have a 2 to 1 advantage if no one from NATO helped Ukraine. The internal problems caused by the Russian citizens in Ukraine will magnify the Russian 2 to 1 advantage. Russia could take the Ukraine but it will be costly for both sides unless the Russians employed Tactical nukes.

[justa-hairyape]

Forgot to add Belarus to Russias numbers.

Belarus MBT 1,800

Belarus Interceptors 63

That means that Russia and Belarus combined would have a definitively 3 to 1 advantage plus the internal unrest factor from millions of Russian citizens. The war however will be difficult and will probably be very costly in human live.

[HAL9000]

All Russia has to do is cut off the gas to Ukraine like they’ve done before.

We should seriously consider building some nuclear power plants in Ukraine. They can be U.S. owned and operated. If we start now, they'll be online when the lease expires for Russia's Black Sea Fleet.