Rasmussen and Gallup Exactly Tied at Start of Convention (H Loses 3 Point Lead)

Rasmussen ^ | 8/26/08 | RasmussenReports

[getitright]

health care- how hard can it be for the GOP to hammer them on tihs issue?

if Kennedy had hollered “owning a car is a right, not a priveledge” how would the line workers at GM react? Or the farmers if groceries were a “right.” Or salon girls if fancy fingernails were a “right?” Or athletes if game day admissions were a “right?”

The health care he is pledging to us is not his to give. The money to pay for it is not his to give. And people applaud this?

How can the GOP not win this issue? Name one thing that the government runs well. And this is who you want running health care?

[ecomcon]

I wonder what the demographics of gamblers are.

[tbpiper]

They still give Obama a 61% chance of winning? Based on what?

Audacious hope?

[pieceofthepuzzle]

“if Kennedy had hollered “owning a car is a right, not a priveledge” how would the line workers at GM react? “

I absolutely agree. The problem is, despite how clear what you've stated is, it is seldom if ever stated this way to the electorate by the Republicans. We should be on the offense with this, reminding people that in the USSR the collectivist farms couldn't produce enough food to feed their own people. If you go over to DU you will see plenty of posts by people who still think socialism is a great thing. Very disturbing.

[justlurking]

Thanks for the real facts here .That In Trading crap is scam and is easily gamed by Obama clowns like Soros and Geffen.

Yes, it's easily gamed. But, it's not a scam.

There's more on the other thread that I cited, which I won't repeat. But, the important part is not the absolute numbers -- it's the trend.

This particular contract is run on behalf of Rasmussen. However, there are "public" contracts for the same thing which appear to be more heavily traded.

All show McCain closing the gap. But, most interesting are the state-by-state contracts itemized in the other thread, which show McCain surging since mid-July in the battleground states of OH, NH, CO, and VA.

[TomGuy]

Even the Biden selection failed to give Obama a bounce.

In fact, it may have had negative impact.

It sure took the wind out of the ‘change’ sails, selecting a Washingtonier who had been there a decade longer than McCain.

[Sooth2222]

Intrade is based in Dublin, Ireland and if my memory is correct, W signed an antiterrorism bill outlawing internet gambling for us here in the US a few years ago. So you may have mainly Europeans placing bets on what they hope is the outcome of the election. The Intrade numbers weren't awfully helpful in 2004, and were particularly unhelpful and abysmally wrong on election day. The Iowa Electronic Markets haven't been very accurate lately, since they were "discovered' and people started following them. This may be a sort of negative "Hawthorne Effect" in that once the game was observed, participant's behavior changed in response.

I think Scott Rasmussen's calculator is a statistical "black box" that weighs variables differently at different times. I don't think it has much of a track record at this time, although it's fun to read. So I wouldn't pack my bags and leave the country just yet.

[ncalburt]

Thanks for the scoop. I thought the In Trade was an offshore thing ?

[TomGuy]

I found it odd that more people look favorably on McCain than Obama, and yet they’re tied,

Obama can't close the deal and McCain hasn't sold himself to the undecided and conservatives.

Both candidates have substantial problems. Barring any unforeseen circumstances and external influences, this one is still a toss-up.

Right now, it depends on whom McCain selects as his VP. The right choice, and McCain wins; the wrong choice, and Obama wins.

[Hildy]

Who is in charge of McCain's campaign?...I'd like to give him/her a big old hug! FINALLY, Republicalns with some balls, and some smarts and some guts...They don't care what the dems say, they just keep trudging along. LOVE IT!

Last time the RNC called me for money I told the gal that when the Republicans decide they want to win and they start acting like it, that will be the day I send them money. I didn't truly believe it would happen, but it looks like it has. Time to dig into my wallet!

[OCCASparky]

There are some problems with these polls.

I think I found one of them for you:

For the month of August, the targets are 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated. For July, the targets were 41.4% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 27.1% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis).

If we're so "evenly divided", why the Dem oversampling?

[adorno]

Rasmussen and Gallup Exactly Tied at Start of Convention

It would be so devastating for democrats if, after their convention, polls were to remain even or if McCain were to poll higher. The dimwits would start jumping off bridges and tall buildings even ahead of the election.

[xjcsa]

This tracking poll is a 3-day rolling average. For McCain to have tied it up in one day after trailing by 3 and 4 points the previous two days, he must have had a heck of a good polling day. I’ll be interested to see what the numbers are tomorrow.

[Heartland Mom]

Sad that this country is going left.

Unfortunately, the only way to reverse this trend is to be more aggressive and demand our conservative philosophy be taught in public schools - not just unchecked liberal propaganda. For too long, this country's children have been turned over at an ever younger age to have their sponge-like minds filled with socialist views.

Also, we need to have more than Fox News sometimes airing the conservative side to the news and Rush on the radio. We need to demand our conservative viewpoint be given equal time on the networks.

This means infiltrating the NEA and MSM. We should do it the same way the left has done it - a little bit here and a little bit more there, until we have chipped away at their strongholds.

[wbill]

FWIW, Obama was running ads heavily here in NC....I haven't seen one in quite awhile.

Obama signs and bumper stickers are more frequent than McCain stuff by about 7 or 8 to 1. But, I think that Obama supporters are fewer in number and just more vocal. I've not talked to anyone (including my inlaws, all Dems) who is excited to be voting for Obama. General consensus is roughly the same as FR feels about John McCain. "Maybe, or I might just stay home."

IMHO, the VP pick might have saved Obama. Instead, he punted. Barring major screwups by McCain, this election is sewn up. And, I'd not be surprised by a landslide victory.

[Names Ash Housewares]

I never expected Obama to get much bounc from this, he has already had an ongoing convention by the MSM for many months now. What are they going to do at the DNC? have him juggle?

I mean over exposure thy name is Obama.

[rwilson99]

exactly tied... when the interview 4 dems for every 3 republicans and 3 ind...

McCain is going to blow this thing out.

[NYC Republican]

If it’s being gamed, then it’s an opportunity to make $$$, no? If it’s even, and you get $6 for each %4 you bet, sounds like a good risk to me.

[DemonDeac]

“If we’re so “evenly divided”, why the Dem oversampling? “

Aren’t there more registered dems?

[TomGuy]

we need to have more than Fox News sometimes airing the conservative side to the news and Rush on the radio. We need to demand our conservative viewpoint be given equal time on the networks.

I turn FoxNews off after F&F. I just cannot take Megan Kelly with Bill Hemmer. Either alone is fine. Either with another host is fine. But for some reason, Megan goes all giddy, googah, and giggly when Bill is on the same set with her.

So, this morning I turned over to CNN. The praise and accolades for last night were hip deep. It was a gush-fest. I turned the TV off after 2 minutes of that.

The remainder of the week on most news outlets will be the same -- a gush-fest for Obama.

I think I have enough Nauzene_® tablets for the week.