We are watching what happens, when those, who preach affirmative action are in charge.
Posted on 08/26/2008 6:43:30 AM PDT by NYC Republican
The Democratic National Convention has begun and the poll numbers are bouncing, but not in the direction that most people anticipated.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain also earns 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s still tied with Obama at 46% and McCain at 46%. Yesterday, with leaners, Obama had a three-point advantage over McCain (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. Sign up for free daily e-mail update.
Obama is supported by 78% of Democrats while McCain gets the vote from 85% of Republicans. The GOP hopeful also has a slight advantage among unaffiliated voters.
Full demographic crosstabs featuring tracking poll results by gender, age, race, ideology, party, most important issues, religious beliefs and more are available to Premium Members via the Daily Snapshot. There’s just six more days to save with summer rates on Premium Memberships. Sign up now and save. Learn More.
Tracking poll results are based upon nightly telephone survey interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s results are the first based entirely upon interviews conducted since Joe Biden was named to be Obama’s running mate.
Obama’s support has declined in each of the last three individual nights of polling. This may be either statistical noise or a reaction to the selection of Biden. If it’s the latter, it probably has less to do with Biden than Hillary Clinton. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Democratic women say Clinton should have been picked and 21% of them say they’ll vote for McCain.
McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 53% (see trends). Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%.
Rasmussen Markets currently gives Obama a 61.0% chance of winning the White House.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 183 votes (see Quick Campaign Overview). When leaners are included, it’s Obama 264, McCain 247 (see 50-State Summary). Premium Members can review demographic crosstabs for all state and national polling. Time is running out for summer rates on Premium Memberships. Sign up now and save. Learn More.
The economic confidence of small business owners improved in August, but only 14% believe that the concerns of small businesses are being heard on the campaign trail this year.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Summaries of our national tracking data on how voters perceive the candidates and issues can still be seen at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For the month of August, the targets are 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated. For July, the targets were 41.4% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 27.1% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis).
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
This is great news for McCain. Biden is worth 0.5% to the ticket.
McCain’s people are running a masterful campaign since the new Team took the reins.
Obama is getting pulverized. And the Rats can do nothing but watch the cold waters approach as the ship is sinking.
(The Clintons are working furiously below sea level to make more holes in the boat.) It’s already public that Shrillary’s people are LEAVING the convention before it ends and before the Obamanation speaks.
That says everything you wannna know. The media won’t be able to keep that out of the public sphere no matter how much they desperately pump up their socialist hero.
Yet the useful idiots keep voting for them.
They still give Obama a 61% chance of winning? Based on what?
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I hope you are right. If we get through this election cycle with a win I really hope we start playing offense for once. From energy to education to health care we need to define solutions that are rooted in the freedom of ideas and commerce. The democrats have been allowed to set the tone on many of these issues, and responses to them have been defensive. Let's come up with free-market solutions and push them.
The more people see of McCain, the more they like. The more people see of Barry, the less they like. Obama is goin’ down.
He might get points for polling well over the past several months. I found it odd that more people look favorably on McCain than Obama, and yet they’re tied, even when leaners are factored in. There are some problems with these polls.
We can hope the Dems do as well as they did in ‘04 when Kerry actually lost ground after his convention. I suspect Obama will get a small boost though, at least. How can he not, when they try to paint him as another Jesus for crying out loud.
I guess we can be encouraged by the fact that at the end of his convention, Dukakis was up by 17 and ended up taking only 111 electoral votes. Now Obama’s lead is nowhere near that large so it looks like he has nowhere to go but down but I would not count him out by any stretch. Looks like this will be close so McCain has to perform very well in the debates, and keep up with the hard hitting ads.
Please read it carefully. It says:
Rasmussen Markets currently gives Obama a 61.0% chance of winning the White House.
In the original article, "61.0%" links here:
http://rasmussen.intrade.com/aav2/trading/contractInfo.jsp?conDetailID=68256
This is a contract on InTrade. It's not a poll, it's people literally betting real money on the outcome of the election.
More information about InTrade in this post: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2067933/posts
We are watching what happens, when those, who preach affirmative action are in charge.
The biggest changes came in Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Colorado and Oregon.
Ohio—with 20 Electoral College votes--moved from Toss-up to Leans Republican following the second straight Rasmussen Reports telephone survey that showed McCain with a modest lead over Obama.
North Carolina—with 15 Electoral College votes—moved from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. This change was based on the latest Rasmussen Reports polling and changes in the RasmussenMarkets.com data.
Wisconsin—with 10 Electoral College votes—moved from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. That move was prompted by the latest Rasmussen Reports polling which shows McCain closing to within four percentage points of Obama.
Colorado—with 9 Electoral College votes--moved from Leans Democratic to Toss-Up, based primarily upon the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in which McCain holds a statistically insignificant two-point lead over Obama.
Oregon—with 7 Electoral College votes—moved from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. While the latest Rasmussen Reports polling shows Obama with a 10-point lead, the average of other polls and a national trends adjustment places the state in the leaner category.
South Dakota—with 3 Electoral College votes--shifted from Leans Republican to Likely Republican based upon Rasmussen Markets data and a national trends adjustment.
Other states had more minor changes: Connecticut from Safely Democratic to Likely Democratic, Louisiana from Likely Republican to Safely Republican, Maine from Safely Democratic to Likely Democratic, and Tennessee from Likely Republican to Safely Republican.
Read it closely and notice that EVERY movement is positive!
In this case, it wasn't a poll. See my post #13.
I cannot remember in any convention though where the REpublicans have fought back so hard!!! Usually we are the ones that are sitting back...I like they way the tone is going....fight, fight, fight....too much at stake!!!!
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
What we are learning, though -- to the chagrin of the MSM - is that John McCain really wants to be president. The MSM thought he'd lie down like Bob Dole.
Frankly, I'm surprised too.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.