Sometimes I am less than impressed by my fellow Freepers who have no math ability.
First, the change in the numbers is not statistically significant. This means that yesterdays numbers could easily be today’s numbers and vice versa.
Second, if there was any change, the change was Dem voters coming home not Republicans or independents leaving. (Hint Read the internal comment)
Third, even if the change were statistically significant, o’Bama gained the votes from the undecideds while McCain may have shaved off a point. These folks are the ones who say yes to the last advertisement they saw.
Finally, the candidate always gets a bounce from the convention and it always takes a few days for it to trickle through because some don’t see or read about it till later.
Therefore, all the hand wringing over Palin, the unwed mom, the vetting process, the hurricane is total and pure fantasy.
>> First, the change in the numbers is not statistically significant.
A single poll is never going to be statistically significant at a high level. But Ras and Gallup together give some reasonable indication of a short-term trend.
I suspect that the internal polling may be better/more targeted, but we are not going to see internal data - so these trackers are the best we got.
Of course, we’ll see in a week whether the RNC manages to reverse this trend.
Thank you.. glad to see there are still a few voices of reason around these parts.
This poll is meaningless. It simply shows a post convention bounce, that was merely a few percentage points. By next Tuesday when the RNC convention bounce is in the numbers we’ll know where things stand.
The dems brought their 80% back home.. it took their entire convention to do it. McCain is looking at 80% support pre convention at this point. Trending up to the convention had been solidly and slowly toward McCain, there is nothing in this poll that suggests anything that disrupts that general trend.
By next tuesday we’ll know where things stand.