Posted on 09/03/2008 6:50:08 AM PDT by frankjr
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 48% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 50%, McCain 45%.
Both Obama and McCain lost a little ground in the polls after announcing their Vice President running mate. Obama lost three points after the Joe Biden selection was announced and McCain lost two points after Palin was announced.
Obama then enjoyed a fairly typical bounce from his convention and it remains to be seen how what kind of bounce McCain will get.
Fifty-two percent (52%) of Americans have a favorable opinion of Palin.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Its a poll ceiling, McCain seems stuck in the mid to low 40s. That is a problem. Hopefully with a modest convention bounce he can pick up enough undecideds to pull into the high 40s (where Obama currently resides in almost every poll).
For those of you who discredit, or discount polls as erroneous or biased, I point to 2004 and 2006 where they were extremely accurate in foretelling election day results.
I doubt it. It is a really good graphic and makes a very good point that needs to be made.
I said it yesterday, I’ll say it today.
Of all the possible picks for VP, which one would not have been attacked by the MSM? Now ask yourself, of all the possible picks for VP, which one would rally the base? Only one and he chose her!
Could be a bad sample, but rather a powerful coincidence to be . . . coincident with the manufactured Palin scandals.
In general I don’t like what I am seeing overall. It smells a lot like Clinton vs Bush in 1992 where the media slapped down hard on anything that looked like Bush momentum to close the gap.
Don’t believe the talk about Ross Perot’s power. I remember seeing the exit polls of Perot voters and they were split 50/50 on who’d they’ve chosen if Perot had not run.
The base is not and never was where there were votes to be found. The polls consistently showed GOP voters preferring McCain in numbers approximately those of Bush. There is no more worthless waste of time than talking to people whose votes you already have.
The problem is not how hard people press the button. It’s how many people press the button. If the base is smaller than the middle and the left wing, and Obama gets the middle, then we lose. Period.
Base enthusiasm generally translates to people walking around their neighborhood backslapping others of their same opinions whose votes they already had. It doesn’t usually translate to getting on a plane and flying to Colorado and then purposely NOT going to the deep red neighborhoods, but rather the middle/moderate neighborhoods.
We need to get this through our heads. Far right wing issues do not move left leaning people to McCain. A left leaning (as opposed to left certain) person can only be moved with evidence of “bipartisanship” and “moderation”. So horrible though it may be to us, we have to spend most of our time talking about McCain’s being on the Gang of 14, not the surge. The surge may not attract moderates. The Gang of 14 may.
“The Pollster’s [sic] blew it last couple of elections...”
Wrong. Rasmussen called the 2004 election as Bush 50.2%, Kerry 48.5%. The actual result was Bush 50.7%, Kerry 48.3%. Pretty darn good. He also called the winner in all 24 states he polled in 2006 correctly.
The Palin “scandals” really didn’t hit the media until Monday, the same day as we’re discussing. So those numbers would not be a reflection of Monday’s pregnancy news and all the other Palin hysteria.
I think it’s likely an outlier. And even if that day’s numbers are somehow dead on accurate I’m really not worried. Obama has to be bummed his lead isn’t bigger, especially with Palin’s and McCain’s big moments yet to occur.
“The problem is not how hard people press the button. It’s how many people press the button.”
Bears repeating. Sometimes Freepers need to get out of the echo chamber and realize that the mushy middle doesn’t see things the way they do.
John Kerry came within 60,000 votes in OH of winning the 2004 election. That would be the John Kerry with no discernable personality and an ACU rating worse than Obama’s. And yet, time and again, Freepers confidently opine that “nobody” will vote for a far leftist like Obama.
The only hard information we have to go on is the polling so far, which indicates that Palin has not helped the ticket and that the media frenzy surrounding her personal life is hurting the McCain campaign’s efforts to get their message out. She’s clearly a hit with the base, but the base is 32% of the electorate, not nearly enough to win. Whether she will be a hit with the mushy middle, i.e., the independents and soccer moms that McCain needs to win, remains to be seen.
She needs to give the speech of her life tonight.
Electoral votes aren’t given by county, so your graphic, while interesting, is ultimately meaningless. By any measure, the electoral vote tally in 2004 was a squeaker. Had the single state of OH gone the other way, Kerry would have been president, and this election is shaping up to be more of the same.
I think Freepers are way, way overconfident right now and we all know that “pride goeth before a fall.”
Electorally, McCain is fighting this election on red territory. With the singular exception of possibly NH, there are no blue state defections right now. All the battleground states this time around were red states in 2004. I will tell you from military history (yes, politics is war) that the guy fighting on his own territory usually loses.
McCain/Palin need to step it up.
To insinuate that Bush drubbed Kerry electorally is nonsense.
I think FReepers were way overconfident on Friday and Saturday. Now many of the same are shrieking and wailing over some close poll numbers that favor the Obamessiah. See my tagline. :-)
Yes, we're likely going to see another close election. And to prepare for anything else is foolish.
I disagree. We have $10 million raised in less than 72 hours over a holiday weekend. That's rock hard information, that indicates a fired up base. Without that, McCain almost certainly loses.
Does he still need some mushy middle voters? Sure. But the polling numbers are still pretty early. To read anything into them at this point is meaningless. As folks keep saying, this time next week will give us a better feel. And I expect to see a very close race once again. Just like last week. Just like 2004. And just like 2000.
“For those of you who discredit, or discount polls as erroneous or biased, I point to 2004 and 2006 where they were extremely accurate in foretelling election day results.”
In 2004 approximately 95%+ of the polls through late August had Kerry over Bush. Then in late August/early Sept (at the time of the Republican convention) the polls began to shift to Bush. So I do hope 2008 is a repeat of 2004.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html
“...a fired up base. Without that, McCain almost certainly loses.”
Wrong. McCain was already getting the same number of votes out of the base that Bush did. That support has been showing up in the polling all summer. Too many Freepers spend all their energy dissing polls rather than looking at the internals and learning something.
The battle, like all elections, is for the middle. There, McCain is having trouble because he is doing very badly, horrendously badly, terribly, horribly badly among independent women. The McCain campaign was smart enough to see that even if most Freepers didn’t, and it is those independent female votes that Palin was put on the ticket to win.
Your post perfectly illustrates my point that Freepers need to get out of the echo chamber once in a while. The base was going to vote reluctantly for McCain. Now they’re going to vote enthusiastically for McCain/Palin. Those are happier voters, but not MORE votes. MORE votes is what McCain needs to win, and as of yet, he is not getting them.
Instead, Obama is getting his convention bounce, which is coming from consolidating Democrat support. He hasn’t won the middle either, yet. The battle for the independent females who will decide the new President is on. If Palin wins ‘em over, McCain will win. If not, Obama will win.
First, I know a bit about polling. Thanks.
Second, support showing up in polling during the summer doesn't mean squat. If they show up to vote in November is ALL that matters. Polling, as you well know since you look at internals, estimates turnout. And no matter how good they get at it, that's all it is. An estimate, usually based on past performance during similar elections.
If your base does not show up, you will not raise money and you will not win.
While I think you have decent points, your nonsensical "get out of the echo chamber" comment directed at me is absolutely laughable. I suggest you read a few of my posts before attempting to preach at me again.
McCain is having trouble because he is doing very badly, horrendously badly, terribly, horribly badly among independent women.
Funny, all I've been hearing about is Obama's trouble with women, not McCain's. However, I do expect many of those disgruntled Hillary supporters to "come home" to the Dems.
Oh, and a fired up base DOES translate into more votes. Via donations and volunteers. If you can't see that, then I suggest that YOU get out of your musty basement and see the real world.
Wanna talk numbers? Look at 2000 vs. 2004, specifically at conservatives. I'm talking actual votes, not polls.
There was no insinuation of Bush drubbing anyone. And many of the battleground states today were battleground in 2004. I was merely saying that people should not necessarily panic at the popular vote being in Obama’s favor. If that vote is not distributed in the right places, then it is less of a factor. No doubt. The race will be close.
Precisely. Bush made his jump in september. With the help of the swiftboat vet crew, and pointing out kerry’s “he was for it before he was against it” positions, Bush put too much distance between himself and Kerry. Kerry had a better October but still couldn’t close the gap, thats why this month is so important.
Every day the media is talking about another “Palin” scandal is a bad day for the McCain campaign, regardless of how you look at it
Good point. This is the best the media can do rh? They’ve spenty how much air time and print type trying to destroy Palin, and Obama has a 5 point lead? This race is over after tonight, McCain by 10.
“...support showing up in polling during the summer doesn’t mean squat.”
It does when it’s the base. Members of a party’s base, once they have decided to vote for their party’s nominee, rarely change their minds.
“If your base does not show up, you will not raise money and you will not win.”
And if only your base shows up, especially when your base is 32% of the electorate, you will lose.
“Funny, all I’ve been hearing about is Obama’s trouble with women...”
It’s been in the internals for months. But you won’t hear about it, especially not here. You have to seek out information if you want to know the true state of the race unfiltered by conservative and MSM expectations. The issue has been discussed on polling websites extensively, and like I said, it’s in the internals.
“Oh, and a fired up base DOES translate into more votes.”
Advertising is important, GOTV critical. But Obama will still be able to outspend McCain, that $10 million notwithstanding.
“Wanna talk numbers? Look at 2000 vs. 2004, specifically at conservatives.”
I’ve looked at the numbers, extensively. There were a whole lot more self-described Republicans in 2004 than there are now.
The Bush DUI in 2000 hurt him much more than most people realize. It was no small thing to evangelicals and conservative Catholics, who didn’t go for Bush in 2000 by nearly the same numbers as they did in 2004. In fact, Bush came out of the 2000 Rep convention ahead by several points, only to see his lead drop to dead even by November. Unfortunately, getting a big summer lead and losing it is not a fate that only happens to Dems, not that you’d know that by the posts around here that assume, in fact are certain, that that will be Obama’s fate.
It’s great to have a fired up base, but as I posted a few days ago, that’s worth a point, maybe two at the outside in the overall election. The Pubbies just don’t have the numbers. So the battle is for the middle.
Palin describes herself as a hockey mom at every campaign stop and in every interview. That is not an accident; it has been tested and focus-grouped to increase her appeal to soocer moms, those moderate late-deciders whom McCain must have to win.
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