Hurricane Ike Live Thread

NOAA/NHC ^ | 7 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Ike is the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2008 hurricane season to threaten U.S. Gulf Coast states.

Reports from Turks & Caicos Islands describe 80 per cent of homes damaged or destroyed. On Sunday, Hurricane Ike's position just north of Hispanola was hampering relief efforts for devastation incurred by Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Fay. The death toll in Haiti from Gustav reached 200 people.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist held a press conference Sunday morning shortly after a Hurricane Watch was issued for the Florida Keys.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data:

Florida & Eastern Gulf of Mexico

Western Gulf of Mexico

West Caribbean

Forecast Models

South FL Radar Loop
FL Keys Radar Loop
Cuba Radar Warning: site gets overloaded
FL Long Range Radar Image

Ike
Single Image		Image Loop
Lat/Lon	No Lat/Lon	Short	Long
Visible	Visible	Visible	Visible
Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave
Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None	None	None	None
AVN	AVN	AVN	AVN
Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak
JSL	JSL	JSL	JSL
RGB	RGB	RGB	RGB
Funktop	Funktop	Funktop	Funktop
Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site--scroll down for Ike

KeyNews.com Key West News
Miami Herald
NOLA.com
KPLC-tv Lake Charles News
WEAR-tv Pensacola FL
TBO.com Tampa Bay Online
KHOU Houston
WKRG-tv Mobile-Pensacola

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[girlscout]

Thanks for the link. I’m most definitely paying attention to Ike now. Those poor people in Haiti aren’t catching a break are they?

[AFPhys]

My visual “spline fit” of that last four hours puts it into the Everglades - landfall even east of Miami, and curving northward may just have started.

This could change everything.

Wayne Gretzky (post#54) may have finally taken his shot.

[AFPhys]

Absolutely - I call Key West easily in play right now, as of this hour.

This may be a “jog” that has come about that will be corrected back to the westerly track by the “steering” of the “ridge” but that IR sequence of the last four hours sure looks like a convincing change of track to be much more northerly than it has been.

Gov.Crist was just on radio - I wonder if the NHC has given him a heads up.

[jpsb]

Hmmm, a real turn north would certainly get the computers fired up at the NHC. Next couple of hours will be interesting.

[arkady_renko]

Next update on the Sat images should be telling. I posted a SPC pressure map earlier that had the tail of the HP ridge somewhere over Cuba. Maybe that is going to move it north now?

[rodguy911]

If you get any info at all that gives a surge estimate let me know and I will do the same, that's really all I am worried about here. You might want to to leave though, you are a lot closer to the action than I.

I heard they are already checking people before letting them back into the keys already up in Fla City.

[NautiNurse]

Best to wait < 45 min for the complete 5PM update. Ike appears to have jogged a tad N of the current track. This may have implications for the Keys.

Rainbow Sat Loop Click the little box up at the top right of the image "Trop Pts"--will show the forecast track.

[AFPhys]

There is no real turn north right now, but the last couple hours are really suggestive that it might be in the works. It might simply be a jog after passing over Great Inagua, but it is very easy suddenly to see it going entirely north of Cuba instead of running the island.

[jpsb]

Who gave Castro Carl Roves weather machine?

[AFPhys]

Ike caused 13-18 surge in Turks, I believe I’ve read.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

Floater - Visible Loop shows IKE heading NW now,,,

It won’t even come close to the next forecast point,,,(Cuba)

This track takes it to SE Fla...:0/

[arkady_renko]

It’s already north of the first forecast point unless it is going to turn 90 degrees.

[rodguy911]

wow what a site thanks !!

[NautiNurse]

It’s times like this, looking into the eye of a big powerful storm, when you start to wonder what is really going on in there...

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

I'm on the mainland but want to get back before they close the bridges

They are evacuating the residents of the keys.

[rodguy911]

I think many of us know what you are referring to and some of us agree.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

If this thing has turned towards Miami, it should be put in breaking news, don’t you think?

[NautiNurse]

The 5PM update will be out shortly.

[rodguy911]

I think the thing has so much intensity it is wobbling a little as they tend to do, but I did see a slight bit of northerly bend to it If I’m not mistaken.

[rodguy911]

wow great stuff there thanks a lot.