[jpsb]

I noticed with Fray, Hanna and Gustav just how good the NHC is getting at predicting the path of big hurricanes. I used to joke that the one thing I know for sure is that 3 days out, where ever the NHC says it’s going is safe from the hurricane. lol, Not any more, I am very impressed with thier skill this season.

[yarddog]

You are right although they did miss Fay pretty badly. They did say they knew why they were missing it tho.

[AFPhys]

Wasn't it two days ago that FL had people leaving and boarding up? Two days ago, many of the models had Ike curling up the East coast. asdf

Look at this:

Only two days ago, NHC had this dead center into the FL Everglades! (the 00Z 9/05 NHC official track)

Sorry - I don't see that they deserve the kudos you give them. They are doing good at predicting the next 1-2 days track, but that is as well as they've done with Ike.

[Sam Cree]

"I noticed with Fray, Hanna and Gustav just how good the NHC is getting at predicting the path of big hurricanes. I used to joke that the one thing I know for sure is that 3 days out, where ever the NHC says it’s going is safe from the hurricane. lol, Not any more, I am very impressed with thier skill this season."

Well, just the day before yesterday, they had Miami taking a direct hit from Ike as a category 4; now Miami is apparently in the clear, while Cuba and then the Gulf coast are looking to be hit. For about 5 days now, every forecast update has moved the track a little to the right. It's almost as if there has been a man out there slowly swinging a rifle across a crowd who is just waiting to see at whom he will take final aim.