click on the state in this map:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/icon.html
When I see Ohio turn red, THEN I’ll start to believe.
It’s electoral votes- that’s what we need to focus on unless McCain really shoots ahead in the polls significantly.
Florida is in the bag for McCain.
How does the rich man’s party not carry RI, CT, CA and NY?
Sorry, I did not see post number #39! I cannot imagine that PA, MI, MN, VA, and FL are “in play”.
In addition, they have excellent shot at "Obama" states PA, NM, MN, WI and MI which will take it to 341 EV.
I realize that MI, WI and MN have not gone Republican in a while but "hockey mom" Sarah Palin has put them into play. They love their hockey up there.
Of course, the way things are going, we could do even better than that. However, it is important to curb the overenthusiasm and campaign like we are 10 points behind no matter how much the polls have us ahead.
They need to take North Dakota and Montana and paint them red...with Palin on the ticket Obama stands NO chance there and his campaign has even said as recent as yesterday they are going to focus on Florida, Ohio, Colorado,Virginia,Wisconsin, and Nevada.
It sounded like they were giving up on Montana, North Dakota, and even New Hampshire.
While I love Karl Rove and his brilliant analysis it’s absurd on its face to think that Obama has ANY real shot at a MT or a ND, I don’t care what fluke polls are trotted out.
Friday, August 22, 2008
The latest wave of state-by-state polling, market data and national trends have pushed the Rasmussen Reports’ Electoral College projections as close as our daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
The latest numbers from the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator show Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes and McCain ahead in states with 183 Electoral College votes. Previously, Obama had enjoyed a 210–165 advantage.
Currently, states with 135 Electoral College votes are leaning slightly in one way or the other, and three states with a total of 27 votes — Colorado, Nevada and Virginia — are pure toss-ups.
BYE-BYE Obama! The militant is going down.
North Dakota a toss up? Bullshit.
There’s no way that’s accurate. What’d North Dakota become lefty overnight?
It sickens me to see that Obama has such a lead in Washington state.
It is the large metropolitan populations around Seattle-Tacoma, Olympia, Vancouver, and Spokane that trend Democrat. Anywhere there are people in large numbers who take government handouts. In the case of Spokane, there are huge numbers of Hispanics, and supposedly a sizable number are illegal aliens here to work in agriculture.
I believe Hawaii has a Republican governor and Palin lived there once herself.
That doesn’t look good (electorals, state by state).
Why is Iowa so liberal?
Poll: State (Indiana) in play for Obama
McCain barely leads; Daniels ahead in governor’s race.
Brian Howey
Saturday, September 06, 2008
INDIANAPOLIS - Hoosiers will find themselves at the American political epicenter as Republican presidential nominee John McCain holds a narrow 45-43 percent lead over Democrat Barack Obama in Indiana, according to a Howey-Gauge Poll of registered voters. The race falls within the poll’s 4.1 percent +/- margin of error.
In the Indiana gubernatorial race, Gov. Mitch Daniels holds a commanding 53-35 percent lead over Democrat Jill Long Thompson. Daniels is attracting 24 percent of Democratic vote, while 27 percent of Obama’s support is coming from Daniels’ supporters. The Republican governor is also attracting 27 percent of the African-American vote with 22 percent of that traditionally Democratic demographic undecided.
The Howey-Gauge Poll was conducted with 600 registered likely voters on Aug. 29-30. The survey began 20 hours after Obama’s Democratic National Convention acceptance speech, and five hours after McCain announced the selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate. Poll respondents were universally aware of both events.
In the presidential race, McCain slightly underperformed the GOP base. Both McCain and Obama have near universal name recognition at 99 percent. McCain’s 55 percent favorable recognition was up 8 percent and his unfavorables stood at a relatively low 27 percent.
Obama’s favorables have been on a steady increase from 41 percent in the April Howey Gauge Poll to 56 percent in this survey. His negatives fell from 34 percent in April to 27 percent in August. Hoosiers having a hard opinion of McCain increased from 72 percent in April to 82 percent.
“The positive movement for Obama is significant,” Gauge Market Research pollster Holly Davis said. “At the end of the day, we’ll have to wait and see if Obama’s impact is larger than that of Palin’s. We will see if the new voters that were registered before and after the May Democratic primary outweigh the renewed excitement social conservatives have for Sarah Palin.”
In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Jill Long Thompson faces a similar dilemma to what she faced in the primary. Her total awareness stood at 77 percent, up from 41 percent in February and 59 percent in April. While that number increased, her favorables and unfavorables both increased 10 percentage points from 22 and 9 in April to 32 and 19 in August.
On the re-elect question, Daniels has improved from a 41 percent in February to 47 percent in April a month after HB 1001 passed the Indiana General Assembly and 48 percent in August. Forty percent responded by saying “elect someone new” and 12 percent were undecided.
“In this environment, 48 percent is OK,” said Davis. “If that number was still in the low 40s, the governor would be in trouble. On the right track/wrong track question, 47 percent said right track (compared to 37 percent in February, 39 percent in April). The wrong track numbers have declined from 40 percent in February, 41 percent in April and 35 percent in August.”
The poll was the third conducted since February by Indianapolis-based Gauge Market Research for Howey Politics Indiana, a nonpartisan, online publication and Web site covering national and Indiana politics. The complete survey can be viewed at www.howeypolitics.com and www.gaugemarketresearch.com.
The final Howey-Gauge Poll will be conducted in late October and released Thursday, Oct. 23.