To Rasmussen’s credit, he goes out of his way to explain how he does what he does and why he does it.
Lots of other folks don’t share how they concoct their brew.
FWIW, RCP’s average of polls is just about where Rasmussen says things are.
You’re thinking that McCain is actually up by about 2-3 in Rasmussen’s numbers. We’ll not see the full effect of the last day of the Pub convention until tomorrow, iirc.
I think he’s actually up by just under three in the “without leaners” category. I’ve had to make some assumptions (LNV sauce, if you will) to get here, though. Tomorrow and Wednesday McCain’s bump should peak. Then we’ll see how much of it, if any, he loses. Convention bumps normally fade, although Bush kept most of his through the election. At any rate, we’ll have a better feel for the state of the race by early next week.