In ‘04 Kerry beat Bush by 7% in WA. So it’s not much of a stretch to see a 4% Obama lead at this point coming off the RNC (and considering the MoE plus undecideds). I’m sure it’ll fall back in line with the ‘04 result by Nov. 4th, though I would certainly enjoy seeing the Dems sweat the Soviet of Washington State.
I think this shows that this is shaping up to be a conventional election more than a landslide-type one with one candidate heading some kind of transcendent political movement (that was what Obama and his genius political strategist Axeldud thought they had).
I was a Bob Barr voter until Palin came along. I live in MD and have long conceded that my vote just doesn't count here as the Dems could run a ham sandwich and 55% of the state would vote for it. So I always vote libertarian. Not this time. The Republicans are energized all of the sudden, and I think turnout will be fine - I feel I'm voting for something now instead of just voting against Obama. I know many lifelong Dems in MD/DE/NJ who say they can't vote for a guy like Obama. Anecdotal, yes, but these were the same people swearing John Kerry was a great man.
Pollsters also buy into this red/blue divide. The last Maryland poll on RCP is a month old. If we're seeing states like WA, OR, PA and MI suddenly as dead heats, I can't wait to see polls from ‘blue’ states we all assume can't be in play. I am not confident in it at this point, but a candidate like Obama is begging for an old-school trouncing. California went for Reagan and Bush I not too long ago. The Ayers, Wright and Rezko stuff isn't even in play yet.
It might be close, we all assume it's going to be close because of the last few elections. The Dems way overreached with a bi-racial Marxist-inspired inexperienced cartoon of a candidate - they may have broken the red/blue stalemate in exactly the opposite way they intended. Look for McCain to get 320+ EVs and don't be shocked if he gets 380+.