Intrade has Obama as having a bit less than a 60% chance of winning each of these states. If the chance were exactly 60% for each state, then Obama would have a 36% chance of winning both. In this scenario, McCain would have a 64% chance of winning the election, and Obama a 36% chance.
This got me interested in what would happen if I considered more states. So far I'm just considering 12, which are CO, FL, IA, MI, NH, NM, NV, OH, OR, PA, VA and WI, the states which Rasmussen has as either "Leaning" or "Toss-Up".
Considering the probabilities of these states, the race is extremely close to dead even (which surprised me, as I was expecting McCain would be the more likely winner). McCain winds up with a 49.4% chance of winning.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Honestly...I’m a union guy....there are alot of union people they are counting on that wont vote for a black man....ever....for any reason...they all yell “hell yea”...until they get in the voting booth...
I’ve been reminding guys that Todd is a stealworker, oil work is union work...etc etc..
Think being a union guy on FR is hard?...try being a conservative in a Union...
*grin*
For what it’s worth, I talked to a woman today who has a daughter at the University of Colorado, and her daughter told her the women on campus are huge fans of Palin. This is not exactly what you would expect to hear from college girls. They love her. And that crowd at their rally at the airport was enormous.
I think McCain will end up winning by a much larger margin than expected. I say this because Palin has changes the dynamic of the race. I think it is safe to say there has never been an election quite like this one. Given this, any algorithms used to predict the outcome of the election, if they are based on past results, would be flawed. That just my opinion, I don’t know how exactly you calculated your result.
The veracity of polling answers is highly unstable as many of the polled are not likely to reveal their true choices.
Obama is very culturally imbued with "neighborhood" Blacks, as compared to say a Colin Powell for instance. That will cause a lot of jitters with most older Whites and Hispanics.
Women are the most under-served constituency in America. Not choosing Hillary will be seen historically as the turning point in Obama's loss.
The privacy of the voting booth will tell all, and deep seated fears of Blacks and anger about the disenfranchisement of Women are likely to be revealed.
Not to ruin your calculations but a new poll out of MN has them tied
Well...he said he was in it to win it.
Lord love the ATTACK pilot!*
*Attack...as in what McCain actually did.
He wasn’t a fighter pilot.
I know a considerable amount of people who have never voted for a Republican president who are either votig for McCain or not voting. I live in MD and would not be that surprised if McCain wins. I know that sounds unbelievable, but I am confident it will at least be close.
I think the swing voters who normally wait until late in the season have swung towards McCain in the last month. This may be a product of the long election season.
McCain has the momentum, and at the right time. His lead will snowball due to the bandwagon effect.
Can 0bama turn the tide? I doubt it. He is out of gas. Hope and Change are as passe as “Where’s the beef?”
McCain by a healthy margin, if not a landslide.
Interesting post, but how do you deal with the feedback problem?
Most Intrade traders place their bets based on their assessment of polls, projections, etc. State polls (those used to do Electoral College calculations) tend to lag by a week or two the national plebiscite polls. Those polls themselves are variously adult, registered voter, or the much more accurate but expensive “likely voter” polls.
So Intrade traders would not be my starting point as they reflect (excluding campaign staff with inside information from more accurate, private, expensive candidate sponsored polls) old information.
Remember, there was an Intrade market for how soon Sarah Palin would go the way of Harriet Myers. That the market even existed is telling of Intrade’s (based in Ireland, I believe) information sources and blind spots.
Your projection (probability) is based on a snapshot, the polls, and may (or may not) be accurate but if so only for today as the polls are in flux.
Really, it’s just another poll.
The media going lower than I ever thought they would, kook libs, madder and kookier than I thought they could be(and Dems being so dumb as to attack Palin as they have)....McCain, who I never gave a thought to before the primaries of having any chance, Hillary being taken out by Obama and now Palin.
What a roller-coaster ride this is, and I am maybe overconfident McCain will win big, but I believe he will and I am enjoying every minute of this election season.
I re-did the calculations using current data, and now it shows McCain’s expected electoral count at 270, and having a 51.4% chance of winning.
Final elections day results: McCain 52% Obama 47%.
McCain: 91% Repubicans, 57% Independets, 18% democrats.
Obama: 82% democrats, 43% Independets, 3% Republicans.