Posted on 09/14/2008 11:57:44 AM PDT by Anti-Hillary
I think the main factor is Sarah Palin. She has a special appeal here in the Pacific Northwest.
For the time being, I'm not seeing that happening.
The sample represents the percentages of the Oregon electorate and it would not be reflective of the real outcome any other way. They must do that in every poll or it is not an accurate poll. I’ll bet if you did New York 50% 50% you might get McCain a little ahead in New York.
I just got my McCain Palin bumper stickers yesterday and far as I know I’ll be the only car in Portland with bumper stickers not supporting Obama.
Without question, but I’m just citing possible reasons for a larger disparity than usual between Oregon and Washington.
Well, actually, not a larger disparity, but a reversal. Oregon normally runs several percent more GOP in presidential races than Washington. If we are to believe this poll, it has flipped to the other side of Washington.
I’m not buying it on the basis of one poll, by a pollster no one has heard of. I need more polling data to be convinced.
Alas, we are seeing the result of “Californication” of Oregon and Washington, and to an extent Idaho and Nevada. Once liberal governance made living in California less appealing, (it really got in gear in the ‘80s) they started moving up to Oregon and Washington. Guess what...they brought their liberal politics with them.
This is the result.
If Obama can’t win Oregon, he is finished. That’s like McCain losing Kansas.
Oregon is a tough nut to crack.
It always seems to dangle in front of the GOP, just out of reach.
I believe Washington state is more likely than Oregon, in fact I do believe McCain will carry Washington. Oregon, I’m still not so sure.
Oregon is generally considered more GOP friendly than Washington, but I think that needs to be reevaluated.
Oregon is basically a a giant evergreen forest with a single metropolitan city in the northwestern corner, on the coast and state border. Portland is a city that is hipper than Seattle and more beautiful than San Francisco, and has the politics to match both. There just isn’t much else in that state. Sure there are small towns sprinkled here and there in the trees, but Portland by far is the dominant political factor in the state. Plus immigration to Oregon tends to be either hipsters looking for the next Seattle, or granola eating hippies wanting to be at one with nature.
Washington, on the other hand is moving towards the GOP. This is in part by a bit of an exodus from Seattle as it fades as a destination for coolness, and to a larger degree from the new development boom in the south-eastern part of the state, near Idaho, complete with Idaho values (Larry Craig not withstanding).
It means they don't want to tell the truth. They just want to keep scam going.
McGovern and Mondale both won only their homestates.
Obama isn’t there yet, but I do see a Dukakis-sized shellacking under development. I see McCain carrying all of the swing states (Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada) plus Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Washington state.
Michigan, Iowa, Oregon, and California are going to be close and could flip to McCain, in that order.
California would take a perfect storm, but I see a very realistic scenario for it. If its an early night for McCain on November 4th, as I think it will be, then Democrat turnout will be depressed, particularly since neither senators nor governor is up for election. Then you have the Bradley Effect, which gets its name from California, and is guaranteed to be highly pronounced here. The Bradley Effect is not actually a product of racism, as it is often portrayed, but quite the opposite. It is the product of political correctness. People being afraid to appear racist, or go against the herd, for that matter, is the cause. And nowhere does this apply more than California. And finally, the most important factor to create the perfect GOP storm in CA: Proposition 8. As many of you know, the California Supreme Court ruled the state’s voter approved ban on same-sex marriage was unconstitutional, and so now we have a proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot to define marriage as between one man and one woman. Conservatives will be out in force in California, for a change, this November. See, the liberal counties like San Francisco and Marin already have maximised turnout in the 80 percentile range. And these counties already lean as heavily Democrat as statistically possible. Republican leaning counties, such as Orange County, San Diego, and the interior of the state always have dismal turnout, which is why California is considered such a reliably liberal state. It really isn’t. It is still the home of Ronald Reagan. But the silent majority rarely speaks up. But I think Proposition 8 may awaken the giant here this election.
“There are small towns sprinkled here and there.”
Uh, have you ever BEEN to Oregon?
Go to Eugene, Springfield or Medford and you’ll see there’s no way those are small towns!
Shoot, even my own town of Grants Pass isn’t really small, having over 30,000 people in the city and far more than that in the county.
Ed
What the nation forgets is, that the type of person Sarah Palin is, also grows strong in Washington and Oregon. We love our freedom, the outdoors, government out of our business. When you make fun of Sarah and her frontier ways, it insults us... I am excited about this election.
Our family lived in Juneau for several years, and I can tell you Seattle is considered the ‘big sister’ to Alaska, almost the first footing into Alaska. Much of the business, major health care, etc is done in Seattle, and Seattle loves Alaska and the money Alaska brings to Seattle and Washington... I only hope that it will be reflected on election day.
Some pollsters go by party registration to get the mix of voters they want. Others use historical numbers. It really is to try to be more accurate not to fudge the results.
I think what you’ve stated about WA is primarily true - and, as others have stated, many are just FURIOUS about the last election and the selection of Gov Fraudoire. The last poll for WA State looks pretty good (Rossi up by 6 and 0 and McCain in a virtual tie considering the +/-); however, there is still a long time until election day. I am a little worried about Reichert (my Rep in Congress) - I don’t agree w him on all points, but he’s certainly much better than Darcy Burner, who he ran against last time and didn’t win by all that much. Hopefully Rossi has some coat tails (and Sarah has some skirt tails here :-)
One thing in this article bothers me a little:
“The random sample of 600 Oregon voters took into account increased registrations among Democrats, particularly in the Tri-County area.”
As I understand it, OR is all absentee voting (WA has moved much of the state to that - which I’m not happy about 1) I think that opens it up to a greater chance for more fraud, 2) from just a personal perspective, I like going to the election place and casting my ballot there.
I’d appreciate your take on the ‘increased Dem registration’ mentioned in the article. Do you think these are all Dim, and, how closely do you think they are being scrutinized (e.g., do you think ACORN is playing a big part in these registrations, and,can get away w voter fraud like they have in other areas of the country?).
Lots of indies and even GOP switched to Dem just to vote in the primary. I almost did the same thing but I decided I didn’t want to be bugged by whoever won the primary for campaign money to the end of time.
As an addendum to #36 above, I think any pollster that uses raw voter registration percentages and equates them to self-declared party affiliation is going to be in for a nasty surprise come November.
I’ve been to Oregon 5 times.
I’ve been to Eugene, Salem, and Bend. And sure, they’re not nonexistent, but they’re nothing in comparison to Portland. But Eugene and Salem lean Democrat anyways.
Operation Chaos!
You could have switched for the primary and whoever won that primary would not have known unless you sent them money.
My daughter lives in Coos Bay, Oregon. We took a trip to Portland and I couldn’t believe all the hippies there.
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