Posted on 09/15/2008 4:56:27 PM PDT by markomalley
The race for the White House is a statistical dead heat, according to a new poll.
Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, leads Sen. John McCain, the Republican nominee, 46 percent to 41 percent in a survey of 626 registered voters by the Siena Research Institute in upstate Loudonville. The survey, conducted last week, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
"Although New York has long been regarded as a 'safe' state for Democrats in presidential politics, likely voters in the Empire State are currently only giving Sen. Obama a five-point cushion," said pollster Steven Greenberg. "The conventions are over. The running mates are set. And as voters begin to focus on the race, New York's overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote."
For every five Democrats in the state, there are only three Republicans.
Asked if Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, the governor of Alaska, was qualified to become president, 47 percent of respondents said "yes" while 41 percent said "no."
(Excerpt) Read more at newsday.com ...
I hope this is correct, because then other, slightly less blue, States would be in play. For now though, I will take this poll with a grain of salt.
That statement is terribly misleading. Vote wise, IIRC, it is 43% Dems, 38% Repubs, and the remainder is center right leaning registered independents.
So which is it? Those two categories have always been identified as different, but here Newsday seems to make them the same.
mccain needs to come with rudy
It’s registered voters, here are the poll details:
http://www.siena.edu/level2col.aspx?menu_id=562&id=19322
“This SRI survey was conducted September 8-10, 2008 by telephone calls to 626 likely New York State registered voters.”
Never forget that it was the democratic party who created Jim Crow laws! A good many older white democratswill not vote for a black man. I could onby imagine what my Dad who died in 1999 would have to say about his party nominating a black man. My Mom is 67 and a lifelong democrat and I have heard zero about the election from her and that is not normal.
That sounds about right to me, too.
I live in rural upstate NY, and register independent. I am used to NY's electoral votes going to whatever idiot has the "(D)" next to his name, regardless of how I vote -- even if I voted 100 times over it would make no difference.
So I figured I could write-in my real choice, something along the lines of "The Ghost of Barry Goldwater".
I may have to re-think that for the first time in years...
"626 likely New York State registered voters".
Now I'm a little confused!
The Spitzer effect
Data was statistically adjusted by respondent age to match likely voters.
So apparently the service calls registered voters and then calculates an estimate of how many of them will vote based on age. That would explain why the two different bases are identified.
That's probably as good as any other method, but it was confusing on first read.
Somebody had to say it.....
I think this is a head fake poll - the Dims are hoping we’ll take the bait and spend all our money in this expensive media market.
If other polls verify this, it will be a good time to make NY a competitive state.
This is RVs...is there a LV number?
btt
McCain should not waste his time in NY. He’s smarter than that. He should concentrate on the battleground state, and not let hubris fritter away his efforts.
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