Bradley effect is real. Demonstrated in primaries. The issue isn’t black voters being too complacent, but white voters not wanting to admit to pollsters that they support a white candidate over a black one, for fear of being labeled racist. As the Dems are increasingly using the “If people don’t vote for Oama, it’s because they’re racist” line, the Bradley effect will expand.
As for the top-line numbers in polls, with McCain’s lead in the underlying demographics of independents and white women, why is his lead so small?
Also, “registered voter” polls do indeed inflate Democratic numbers, especially this time around when Obama’s people registered a whole lot of people who never intend to vote.
Yeah, I wonder how many of the new registered voters will actually show...0bama, of course, is heavily reliant on them.
Obama overperformed his primary polling numbers by 5%, so if there was an effect, it was the reverse of what you are talking about.
Registered voter polls dont inflate democratic numbers, likely voter polls decrease them because by and large they are less likely to turn out the vote.