That answers my quesion (post 32)... We CAN’T choose to believe this, and also discount the other poll that came out today, showing ZeroH up by 14.
Jiminy Crickets, Democracy Corps (D) just came out with a poll today with O up by only 4, down 6 from the 10 point lead they spotted him a week ago.
I know polls are all over the place, but you’d think they’d at least be consistent in marking trends!
Here’s the substance of a FR mail that I just sent around to some people about the new Pew poll:
I had to wade through about 10-12 pages of stuff, but they did list the Party ID at the end. It is by registered voters, but they assume that a very high percentage of registered voters are also likely voters (92%! — that should be a huge clue about just how crappy this poll is).
Here is the breakdown:
R 32.4% (89-7 for McCain)
D 38.3% (91-5 for Obama)
I 29.3% (51-33 for Obama — this is the number that looks especially nuts to me)
Quick observations: they are skewing this poll by undersampling Republicans by 3-5 points and also assuming an Independent electorate that is 20% more Democratic than the last two Presidential elections. This is very similar to what CBS did in their last poll.
I just checked my chart and confirmed that from 1972 to 2006, the Dems were as high as +8 once with Independents: in 1996. Since then, they were +2 Bush in 2000 and +1 Kerry in 2004.
Two more important details. First, it assumes that turnout will be a whopping 80 percent of voting age population (2,382 LVs in a sample of 3,016 adults). Again, we haven’t even hit the 60% level (Gallup’s current projection) in any election since 1968.
Second, and equally ridiculous, it assumes that 92 percent of registered voters will actually vote. Again, in 2004 — the highest turnout election since 1968 — only 70% of registered voters actually voted. Usually this number is in the mid to high 60s.
In sum, the poll is complete crap. I would totally dismiss it. And one other thing that is really starting to piss me off: Obama media and pundit pinheads using these fraudulent polls to skew Sarah Palin, who is the single best thing that the Repbulicans have going right now. I shudder to think where McCain would be today without her.