[Clintonfatigued]

Here’s the second poll this week showing The One with a double-digit lead in Iowa. McCain has never run strongly there and I don’t expect that this will be any exception.

[Chet 99]

McCain opposes ethanol subsidies, which pretty much cooks his goose in a state like Iowa.

[impeachedrapist]

And I can show you other polls showing McCain/Palin very close in Iowa. And considering they visited there just this week, I think it's obvious that McCain/Palin are not trailing by double digits in Iowa.

[pollywog]

Does anyone else get depressed when we see these headlines?

Looking for a ray of hope here...
Polly

[BillyBoy]

>> Here’s the second poll this week showing The One with a double-digit lead in Iowa. McCain has never run strongly there <<

When you were posting on the Arkansas Presidential poll numbers, you noted McCain was safely ahead and therefore there's no reason to put Huckabee on the ticket. Going by your argument that McCain's veep should be based solely on what states they can carry, wouldn't Iowa be a case FOR Huckabee on the ticket? He was far more successful in Iowa than Romney ever was in Michigan, and Huck had no past ties to Iowa whatsoever.

(Just pointing out that a veep should be selected on more reasons than just their election numbers in various states)

Seriously, I do getting Iowa in the GOP column is doable (Bush moved it from D to R in 2004), whether or not Huck is on the ticket. The problem is McCain traditionally snubed Iowa voters in the Ames during the 2000 and 2008 elections (using the same Fred Thompson logic that the early contests "don't matter"), and it's coming back to haunt him. McCain & Palin will have to spend alot of time in the upper midwest to make up for that.

[BillyBoy]

Here's the results from last time. Illinois isn't nearly as bad as say, New York (where Dems win by a 2-to-1 margin) Kerry won Chicago and the college towns in Illinois by HUGE margins(taking in about 12 out of 102 counties), while the rest of the state was vast streches of conservatives. Unlike most states in the union, the capitol of Illinois (Springfield) and its county (Sangamon) is a GOP stronghold.

It's therefore theoretically possible for Obama to lose his home state ala Al Gore in 2000, but Obama would have to be damaged enough to be trailing by a 40-state margin nationwide.

Iowa has always been close, it's probably one of the best examples in the U.S. of a "middle of the road" state. It's about equally dividied between the two parties. I could never figure out why. (Des Moines is hardly a urban left-wing mecca like San Fran or Boston)

ILLINOIS 2004
Kerry/ Edwards (D) 2,891,550 votes, 54.82%
Bush/Cheney (R) 2,345,946 votes 44.48%

BUSH COUNTIES = BLUE
KERRY COUNTIES = RED

IOWA 2004
Bush/Cheney (R) 751,957 votes, 49.90%
Kerry/Edwards (D) 741,898 votes, 49.23%

BUSH COUNTIES = BLUE
KERRY COUNTIES = RED