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To: impeachedrapist
Look at it this way. In 2006, a horrible year for the GOP, a former Republican with a strong military background had to go into overtime to defeat George Allen. (Granted George had the incumbency advantage, but Webb had strong name recognition.) But how would such a result translate into a 6-point Obama victory, during a Presidential year? It wouldn't. Factor in the SUSA internals, its immediate previous result with VA Presidential elections, and this poll really isn't worth worrying about.

I have lived in NoVA for 30 years and am active in GOP politics, including being a delegate to this year's state GOP convention. There have been dramatic demographic changes in VA due to migration and immigration, especially in NoVA. In 2004 Kerry won Fairfax County [the largest county in the state with about 1 million in population], the first time a Dem presidential candidate has done that in 40 years. One-third of the state's population now lives in NoVA.

VA is also about 20% black. It is projected that there will be a record turnout this year. Obama has opened offices in every county and is engaged in a huge registration effort among minorities and on the numerous college campuses throughout the state. This is the kind of ground game that destroyed Hillary in VA.

No amount of happy talk is going to change the political reality in VA. I am sure that Obama's internals gives him a great deal of hope that he can win VA. I am very very worried about VA and you should be too.

55 posted on 09/22/2008 10:32:11 AM PDT by kabar (.)
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To: kabar

i live in NoVA near the nutley street metro. they had voter “registration” booths set up at the safeway at the Pan Am shopping center staffed with the Obama-ites, yesterday and another day this week i saw roaming bands of youngish people with Obama and voter registration signs around the intersection of Nutley and Lee Hwy. There was activity at the table at the safeway, and i share your concern.


59 posted on 09/22/2008 10:43:32 AM PDT by xsmommy
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To: kabar
No amount of happy talk is going to change the political reality in VA.

ROTFLMAO!!! "Experts" like you just crack me up. Why don't you go back and read about 547 of my posts concerning VA, Mr/Ms Expert? I don't agree with your pessimistic hand wringing, therefore I'm guilty of "happy talk."

You're right, Kerry did win Fairfax County. And Bush INCREASED his margin from four years earlier! What exactly is your point? 1/3 of the voters do live in northern VA. Which means, hmmm, carry the 4, that 2/3 do not!

You're very worried about VA. I am not. Guess that means that an expert like you with three decades of GOP work had better get busy.

60 posted on 09/22/2008 10:45:54 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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