And I've been hearing experts such as yourself make this argument for years now. So if the demographics have been shifting so dramatically, why did Bush increase his margin in Virginia? WHY?!?!?
And I've been hearing experts such as yourself make this argument for years now. So if the demographics have been shifting so dramatically, why did Bush increase his margin in Virginia? WHY?!?!?
Based on Census Bureau statistics, the demographics of VA have changed significantly. In 1990 the population of VA was 6,187,358, which included 4,791,739 whites; 1,162,994 blacks; and 159,053 Asians or Pacific Islanders. Hispanics of either race numbered 160,288.
In 2006 the population of VA was 7,642,884 which included 5,413,295 whites; 1,496,076 blacks; and 365,515 Asians or Pacific Islanders. Hispanics of either race numbered 470,871. The growing minority population, a normal Dem constituency, has a political impact. There has been an increase of approximately 840,000 in the minority population out of the total population increase of 1.4 million.
The Bush margin of victory in 2004 [8.2%] did not represent a statistically significant difference from the margin he won by in 2000 [8.04%]. And McCain is not Bush and Obama is not Kerry. It is a whole different dynamic.
In the VA Dem primaries 1 million voted for the Dem candidates compared to the 1,454,742 that voted for Kerry in the 2004 general elections in VA. Elections are about turnout. Although VA does not have registration by party and has open primaries, this is a huge turnout for the Dems in a primary. In 2000, Gore received 1,217,290 votes in the general election in VA. If the Dems can turnout the vote for the general election like they did the primary, they are going to be very tough to beat.