I get the sneaking suspicion that you don’t live in VA. What makes you such an “expert” on the state? Did you stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night?
You're the GOP expert, remember? As for your suspicion, so what if you're correct? I definitely don't live in Iowa or Wisconsin, but I know the difference between corn and cows.
If it makes you feel any better (not that I really care), I lived in three different Virginia municipalities for over three total decades. But to me that's irrelevant. It's really all about numbers - past, present and trying to extrapolate those into a future election.