..."but that in the end I expect McCain/Palin to win by 5-6 points."
I'll go out there with you and say that McCain/Palin will take the Commonwealth of Virginia in the 7.0%-10.5% range. My high range variance is due to the 'Palin' factor and the potential number of women who will add support to the McCain/Palin ticket.
Fairfax County (my residence since mid 70s) has become more Democrat, however it used to be that rural areas of Virginia were the more Democrat in that past. That has now flipped, still some people forget the the Commonwealth is conservative above all.
McCain/Palin will win in Virginia.
dvwjr
fairfax is a big county and there are lots of different pockets. I just drove through falls church on the way home and there are more obama signs on Hillwood Ave. than the last time i went through there. but that has always been the peoples republic of earthwatchers down there in Falls Church. i am very nervous about VA. Maybe it will go for McCain but i will be surprised. I am a hockey mom but i have missed my son’s first two games, now that he has his drivers license. i will need to take the pulse of the hockey moms on his NoVA team!