I read the numbers. I doubt Horn will win. But Obama's got some problems in NH. If his numbers tank over the next ten days, that could be enough to deliver both NH seats back to the Pubbies.
People who don’t see losses coming are usually in denial about their observations. Like I said, there are very good reasons why Murtha is struggling. There are very good reasons why Hodes isn’t. He’s been playing this term and this re-election perfectly. Don’t be “too” anything: too arrogant, too stubborn, too proud, etc. He’s been a case in slow and steady wins the race. You can’t find people who are angry at Hodes. At worst, they are indifferent. No one can really say what he’s done badly. He’s running as “generic Democrat” in this race, and NH-2 is very welcoming right now to “generic Democrat.” 2000, 2004, and 2008 have seen towns in NH-2 grow more and more Democrat, bit by bit. It’s very demoralizing to GOP workers, but it’s a tough environment.