No, I wouldn't have been scoffing. Big mouth celebrity politicians fall on their faces all the time (Tom Daschle, for example). Guys like Hodes in districts like NH-2 with a top of the ticket like Lynch (and Obama, who is paying for a lot of NH campaign workers who are indirectly working for Hodes' re-election) don't lose except in political tsunamis.
All incumbents have built-in advantages; hence they’re huge re-election rates. But NH-2 only gave Kerry 52%, so while it’s left-leaning it’s hardly insurmountable. I will be surprised if Horn defeats him. However, if on election night I’m seeing McCain/Palin deliver a 4- or 5-point national win then I’m going to be watching quite a few House races, including NH-2, very closely.