[impeachedrapist]

NH-1 went for Bush by 51% in 2004. Freshman incumbent Dem Carol Shea-Porter defeated Jeb Bradley, who is running to recapture his seat. On Aug 20 Jeb had $360K in the bank (but $350 in debt, for +$10K), while Shea-Porter had $675K ready and waiting. However, Bradley did have to defeat a primary challenger just a couple of weeks ago. There are also Green and Libertarian candidates on the general election ballot. Low turnout killed Bradley in '06 (when polling generally showed him ahead), so he's got a decent shot at this seat if he can get some more money in the bank. McCain's strength in the competitive state of NH likely means plenty of visits, translating to $$$ and exposure for Jeb.

[impeachedrapist]

Ping to my #47 for your input. I have not included NH-2, which is less conservative a district (also held by a freshman Dem, I believe), as a GOP pick-up opportunity. But I’d like to hear your take since you apparently live in NH.

[OCCASparky]

Impeached--the following is an article from TheHill.com from last night. My apologies, but I forgot hot to hotlink:

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/poll-hodes-may-be-in-trouble-2008-09-22.html

She's only down by 4 points and nearly 20 percent undecided. She's also killing him in the debates. This is a woman who two months ago trailed Hodes by 20 points when hardly anyone knew who she was. The more people up in the north country see her, the more they like her.

When you couple that with the real animosity towards Shea-Porter, or Che-Porter as she's known, there is a very good chance both House seats could go back to the GOP, especially when you consider a moderate Republican like McCain actually does very well up here and now leads Obama.

Sadly, Sununu hasn't run much of a campaign and it doesn't look good for him going up against Queen Jeanne the Spending Machine, which is sad because he's actually the better of our two Senators. Come 2010 you'll probably see Gregg get voted out as well, possibly by Lynch, who almost certainly will win a third term despite being a horrible governor thus far.

[impeachedrapist]

The money numbers definitely favor the Dems in both NH-1 and NH-2. The 96% white vote is not helpful to Obama, so that might possibly be enough to help the GOP win back one or both seats. But I’m admittedly disappointed in the fundraising.