The two pivotal MI counties to watch are Oakland and Macomb. Past successful Republicans (Engler and Reagan) did very well in those counties. Thus enabling them to counter Wayne county. Unfortunately, Republicans recently have not done well in those vote rich counties.
Oakland County’s population is increasingly black, and it will be difficult for McCain to carry it this year. But if he can fight Obama to a draw there (by doing well with Jewish voters) and carries Macomb County by a healthy percentage (President Bush carried it by only 1.5% in 2004) he can parlay that into a statewide win.
Wayne County is a mystery to me.
However, I may get flamed for this but it is history.
Remember the state wide referendum on Affirmative Action? It went down 58% to 42% in favor of repeal.
How shall I say this, as someone who is not a Michigan native, I was shocked at peoples "attitudes" and I can be traced back to 68' and 69' when Detroit burned. I hate to say it but it this may play a factor as well on top of Obama's incompetence, lack of patriotism, and outright gall that will cost him Michigan.