A new Michigan poll has McCain ahead of Obama, 46% to 43%!
It’s notable that this poll was taken during the peak of the economic crisis (Sep. 15-19).
Great news! I expected this to happen.
I think Mac has a shot at Michigan, though I am not sure he’s ahead right now. I have said that frustration with the Dem mcahine has reached a boiling oint after Kwame, and I stand by that statement.
However, I like the internals of this poll much better — it is far closer to actual exit polls/party turnout than many of the other polls.
Too many polls are doing their numbers by party registration — it needs to be done by likely party turnout, based on solid evidence.
That’s why I think McCain has a real shot at PA and an outside shot at MI. NH is looking better every day. (and where’s my ME CD-2 poll???!?!?!).
All said, Obama has blue turf to defend. After the NRO breakdown of VA, I no longer fear losing as much there. At worst Mac is 2-3 ahead instead of the 8 he should be.
Great news!