At this stage, McCain is behind about 5 pts nationally. This is probably still enough to win NC narrowly, but the poll is well within the margin of error.
I would like to know how McCain can be 5pts behind Obama nationally when 20% of the Hillary voters have stated they aren't going to vote for him.
Obama is going to get crushed!
Hard to believe NC would have fallen so far, so fast. Four years ago even with Edwards on the ticket, Kerry could only take 44% there. But sadly it would appear the state is changing. Even in SC Bush got “only” 58% while Presidents Regan and Nixon won by much larger margins.
Having said that, polls can be way off. Electoral-vote.com in its “this day in 2004” screen shows some numbers that are way off. One poll had Bush up by *14* in Wisconsin. We all know how that turned out. So while I am being realistic, I don’t think we need to give up hope.
The latest NBC/WSJ poll out yesterday has Obambi + 2 over McCain, that’s with Registered Voters, an admitted oversampling of Spanish and an oversample of dems. Peter Hart, who helps run the poll, is a longtime dem operative. I’d guess among Likely To Vote Mac is probably + 1 over the messiah.
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_NBCPoll_092408.pdf