The polls that are transparent about their internals seem to be assuming a HUGE increase in black turnout for Obama. This won't happen. It won't come close to happening. Bear in mind that the Dems have made an art form out of hauling every African American voter they can find to the polls for decades. It has kept them close when they had no business being close, but it means that there isn't a whole lot of room to expand turnout in the African American community. Enthusiasm for a brother may make it easeier and cheaper for the Dem GOTV machine to do its thing, but it won't radically change the composition of the electorate.
Keep your eye on the internals. Obama is losing white women and independents by significant margins and he is getting crushed among white men. His numbers on trust and leadership are in the crapper and heading for the septic tank. Whatever any horserace numbers look like, unless those fundamentals change he will lose every state a breathing Dem can lose.
It gives me no pleasure to say this but John Sydney McCain will be the next POTUS.
The problem I have with this argument is the MSM and all of their polls do this year after year to the GOP but there is something different this year. Obama is actually ahead in most polls now and the statewide polls that really could have McCain down too. Looking over the 2004 polls around this time all had Bush up even among registered voters by a good margin. Some similar to what we are seeing now with Obama being up.
I don’t like McCain, but I would rather see him in office now than Obama (who scares the crap out of me).