Your right! If either candidate is up by 2 or 3 points nationally, however, the electoral college will almost certainly be in their column as well.
It comes down to taking FL, OH, IN, VA, NV and one of the following: CO, or NH + 1 EV from ME. Very good chance of that.
Color all those yellow states blue (even Indiana). That map is from 9/24. McCain is way behind in all those states now. Be ready for an Obama landslide. McCain blew it by suspending his campaign. It has pissed off Independent voters who will now go heavily to Obama.