Not certain about an October surprise. But one thing for certain, Missouri election after election is a very reliable barometer of who wins the presidency. It’s usually hotly contested there and I believe I heard that only once in the last 100+ years has Missouri not gone with the winner. It’s the inner cities in St. Louis and KC where you find all the fraud as the outstate areas (excluding the liberal he!!hole Columbia where I went to school and lived for 20 years) are heavily pubbie.
I will need to have a discussion with a friend that grew up in the Italian part of St Louis, IIRC called The Hill. The Mob was strong there from 1900 - 1960, and now the new Mob is just a different tribal clan.
What an amazing state. Rock solid country folk, lots of red necks and hillbillies, and twin cores of corruption on either side of the state.