Posted on 09/29/2008 6:22:16 AM PDT by housedeep
Wilder, I know you’re a newbie, but if you discuss a poster, it is proper etiquette to ping that poster. Otherwise, you are talking behind someone’s back, and that is not tolerated here.
Ras’ call in 2000 was 49 Bush 40 Gore. It ended up being 48-48.
Ras CHANGED HIS METHODOLOGY after that and has nailed EVERY CALL since, something I have pointed out to Wilder more than once, but he neglected to include that fact in his dissing of Ras to you, ConservativeDude.
Wilder, why haven’t you explained to me why Battleground is saying that 18-44 year olds are only 30% of the electorate when we know that cannot possibly be true? And why does Battleground compare their final election predictions to MSM preliminary numbers instead of certified results?
Good pollsters don’t have to play games to make themselves look better.
Battleground is saying that 18-44 year olds are only 30% of the electorate when we know that cannot possibly be true?”
How do we know that?
Not sure I want to expose BG as flawed here...not sure if I can take it, since that is the hope that we are clinging to!
Lady, are you telling me that because you have been at a web site blog longer than I, it somehow makes you more politically astute?
Newbie, hardly. I have volunteered for many GOP Candidates in the Midwest, and have been around campaigns, not just websites.
Your support of RAS is admirable, but clouded.
http://www.tarrance.com/files/9.25-Public-tables.pdf
Of 1009 respondents, only 291 were under the age of 44. 710 were 45+. That’s ridiculous. People are obsessing about Ras’ party weighting of 5.5, while completely ignoring this, which is absurd on its face. The under 30 vote alone is almost 20% of the electorate.
Look, I take no joy in this, but Battleground has a well-known Pubbie bias of about 4 points, which is why some of the polling websites don’t even include them in their composites.
No, I am saying that until you stop avoiding my questions about Battleground while misrepresenting my positions on the issue to other posters, I have reason to suspect that you are not an honest broker.
And, diversion tactics don’t work with me. Now, what about Battleground undersampling younger voters and comparing their results to AP numbers instead of certified numbers? This is the fourth time I’ve asked.
Lady, you admitted in a post to me that RAS was wrong in 2000.
Am I correct
How do you sample Younger voters correctly, lady? They underperformed for Kerry in 2004, and are the least reliable voting bloc there is.
In 2006, The worst year for the GOP since Watergate, the final real vote was a DEM +3. By the way, what about the Bradley Effect? Do you disagree on that too.
Then why is RAS using a 5.5? when historical averages show that a +4 is the highest.
Inside of calling me a newbie, answer this questions without a RAS bias please.
Duh. Did you expect them to say otherwise?
You have my deepest sympathy. Where we live it’s farming country too, lots of Democrats. Most farmers here work in the car plants so are also autoworker union members.
Did you read this article on the American Thinker? I’m so livid since reading it. It’s assigned reading for today’s homeschool political science/social studies: http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/09/barack_obama_and_the_strategy.html
“Lady, you admitted in a post to me that RAS was wrong in 2000.”
Not by ten points, as you stated to another poster, and with important caveats, which you left out.
“How do you sample Younger voters correctly, lady? They underperformed for Kerry in 2004, and are the least reliable voting bloc there is.”
Nope, the least reliable voting block is the very old. According to the FEC, the youth vote was 17% of the electorate in 2004, and 57% of the electorate was under 45, yet Battleground uses 30%, an undercount of almost 50%. Just because the youth vote doesn’t turn out like the Dems wish, doesn’t mean that none of them turn out. They do, in numbers roughly commensurate with their percentage of the overall population.
As for the old vote that McCain is counting on, again according to the FEC, the 75+ crowd is the least likely demographic to vote, yes, even less than the youth vote.
“Then why is RAS using a 5.5? when historical averages show that a +4 is the highest.”
He is basing that on current polling. With a black on one side of the ballot and a woman on the other, using historical trends instead of current information is dicey, to say the least.
“Inside of calling me a newbie...”
Within a day, you were rude, insulted me, refuse to repond to my legitimate questions and misrepresented my position to another poster to help bolster your argument, the very argument I was against. You should be grateful that “newbie” is all I’m calling you.
Ping
Either way the boost in the National polls for Obama did not translate to EV’s.
Take a look at Rasmussen who shows Obama in the lead with the National poll. The electoral votes are still 255-Obama 227-McCain (Leaners included) There are 108 toss ups, 6 states. 5 of those states were red. The 6th state New Hampshire was blue, and McCain is currently ahead 49-47.
The National polls went up and down but the electoral votes did not.
Welcome to FR. Seems you aren’t happy to see McCain up in a poll. Sad. Obama’s campaign reminds me of someone else’s campaign
DEWEY BEATS TRUMAN
Good. I want to see where Battleground is tomorrow.
All the polls except Rasmussen for the 2004 presidential election: Sept, Oct, Nov.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
Not particularly encouraging, that graphic. It shows that GWB had among the vast majority of polls a small to moderate lead for the entire month.
Seems to me that in essence, most of those polls were right.
Which is what I fear today. It looks like BG also gave about a 3 point bump to the GOP, which is what some are saying here about 208 BG numbers.
Not good.
The National polls went up and down but the electoral votes did not.”
Sometimes the states are just delayed, for whatever reason.
But I hope you are right in that they just didn’t move blue.
Yes, I agree. Dream on, buddy. (I hope).
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