Posted on 09/29/2008 6:22:16 AM PDT by housedeep
Battle Ground shows McCain steady at 48%!
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
WooHoo, don’t need my Prozac today. /sarc
One thing is for certain.
Battleground, Rass, and Gallup are all reputable pollsters. Yet, right now, there is a 6-8 point spread between them.
Someone is way out on a limb here. On the face of it, it seems like Battleground. It is truly by itself. But I am praying that Battleground is the only one that is correct!
Anyone who thinks this election is in the bag for Obama might be flying a little too close to the deck.
Remember way, way back last Fall, the election was going to be all about Iraq and the experts in the MSM had proclaimed Hillary and Giuliani as the candidates. Nobody was talking Fannnie & Freddie.
This pollercoaster ride is far from over. Please keep your hands and feet inside the vehicle at all times. ;-)
It depends on where Obama’s additional support is coming from. The game for McCain is to win Florida, Ohio, Virginia and hold to all the other major Bush states. Nothing has changed there. He seems to have fallen behind in Colorado and that could be the ball game, but the local papers say it’s still close.
The economic meltdown clobbered McCain and I think he did the right thing suspending his campaign until it is sorted out, because it started to become the law of diminishing returns out there. The suspension had better end soon. Once he puts his mind back on the campaign, things will pick up, and really you are only talking about a dozen battleground states.
DAMMIT! This is still a CLOSE ELECTION!
We’ve got to close ranks and stay focused to END THIS IN VICTORY!
DAMMIT! Let’s stop the hand-wringing and ‘defeatist’ statements - RIGHT NOW!!!!
If you WANT ZERO to win this election - then DECLARE IT OVER FOR MCCAIN NOW!
If you WANT ZERO to lose this election - then STOP NEGATIVITY on MCCAIN/PALIN NOW!
Regardless of whatever happens in DC - WE HAVE GOT TO STOP ZERO and his band of thieves from winning NOV 4th!
M48% to o 46%. Mccain is ahead, not behind
Rass has it 50-45, McCain up 1 from Yesterday.
Try reading the poll again. McCain is ahead.
Perhaps, if he took the gloves off and STARTED to fight we might be in a better position.
So if they're cooking it, I like their cooking better than Gallup's cooking and Rasmussen's cooking.
Being bipartisan, instead of "independent," I am much more willing to believe that Battleground is being intellectually honest more so than the others. But, I can't help but notice Battleground is the outlier.
I think you got you numbers mixed up son McCain is winning according to my gut and this poll.
M stands for Mother
O stand for the oil in my hair.
it is the only poll that is using historical measures of actual turnout for determining it’s Dem to GOP mix.”
Of course, we don’t know if past performance will be the same this time....the D’s sure are investing a lot in their “ground game” and they swear up and down they they have registered millions and will get them out....who knows?
Actually, I think the Battleground Poll is the only one that is using the correct mix of Dem/GOP party affiliation. See my post:
Party ID: The Case for Weights and Historical Margins (Current polls all oversampling Dems)
ill take that ras number today!
slow and steady tightening of that poll i think this week.
so glad the “economic meltdown” (lol) happened in sept instead of oct.
JMO, and please don’t tell me my head is in the sand :), but I believe it has a lot to do with the majority using cell phones.
I say that, because in my immediate family, I’m the only one who uses a house phone. And if I didn’t have to have DSL for my work, I wouldn’t have any use for a house phone myself. We have had one polster call, and I was told they had all the women they needed and would like to speak to a man.
I truly believe this is the crux of the weird polls. It was a factor in past elections, but not as much as this one.
PollerCoaster - LOL. Says it all.
However, Battleground shows less wild swings; and I think its methodology (as has been proven) gets a much better snapshot/cross-section of where voters actually stand at a given point in time.
Gallup shows as much as 12-20 point swings, which I find a fantasy - and we all see the breakdowns in Party ID in the media-sponsored polls.
Rasmussen used to worry me, but he has so oversampled Democrats that he didn't even show a convention bounce for McCain - until he adjusted for more Republicans to show that bounce, having seen his folly - then went right back to oversampling Democrats.
Rasmussen has a 6% Dem edge in turnout - in 2004 it was 47/47. The most it has EVER swung in one election was 4 points. In 2006 - a Dem landslide year - the Party turnout margin was Dems +3%.
If we readjust most of the polls - even many of the “RV” and “Adults” polls - for a more reason able 1-4% Dem edge instead of the gap they use, you get a statistical tie with a sometimes very slight, statistically insignificant edge for Obama.
It is more a dead heat right now that some of the polls show. Battleground, history's most accurate pollster - period - shows the same.
Yes, I have read that. They are correct using history as a guide.
The question is whether history is a guide here.
Plus this includes Sunday -- and Obama grabbing the "credit" for the Wall Street bailout.
I have some degree of skepticism about the computer tracking polls in this cycle. Is it easier to lie to a computer or to a live pollster? Not to blow off the Rasmussen results -- I'm just curious.
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