In the end there will not be enough morons in the inner cities to carry this lightweight.
McCain by 6
I like your optimism, but I’m not so sure.
This election has very strange dynamics with race and gender each playing a large role.
During the Democrat primary, pollsters repeatedly got it wrong, sometimes VERY wrong because people were telling them they were voting for Obama, but instead they voted for Hillary. Pollsters found excuses for why they got it wrong - like Hillary crying in NH swinging the vote dramatically. I don’t buy that. I think people were telling pollsters they were voting for Obama because they wanted to appear they weren’t racist.
I think a lot of people are uncomfortable with Obama and his past and present connections. He has his worshippers, to be sure, but it’s the old mile wide, but one inch deep support, IMO.
This is a really hard election to get a beat on.