Maybe they oversample Dems because they are trying to account for what will be greater Dem turnout, at least in some demographics. Surely there will be greater black turnout with 98% going for Obama. And, while it might not be a tidal wave, the youth vote will be greater. It was in 2004, slightly. If these turnouts don’t materialize then all the better.
Could it be related to all of the news stories lately about the higher than usual Democrat voter registrations? If so, then the pollsters who believe this will weight their polls higher for Democrats regardless of past election breakdowns.
The next question is, how many of these new Democrat registration are from ACORN, and therefore will (hopefully) be thrown out before election day?
I would guess that the democratic turnout will be higher based on the excitement of the obamaniacs.
also, as the postings in these forums indicate, mccain is losing a lot of support now that he voted for the bailout. I have read several posts tonight of people who will no longer be voting for McCain/Palin.