Posted on 10/06/2008 2:19:37 AM PDT by Chet 99
Why Bush Is Toast
By William Saletan
Posted Thursday, Sept. 14, 2000, at 3:00 AM ET
Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential race. Three show a dead heat, one shows George W. Bush leading by a single percentage point, and the rest show Al Gore leading by one to 10 points. In the latest polls, Gore leads by an average of five points. It's fashionable at this stage to caution that "anything can happen," that Bush is "retooling," and that the numbers can turn in Bush's favor just as easily as they turned against him. But they can't. The numbers are moving toward Gore because fundamental dynamics tilt the election in his favor. The only question has been how far those dynamics would carry him. Now that he has passed Bush, the race is over.
Yes, in principle, Bush could win. The stock market could crash. Gore could be caught shagging an intern. Bush could electrify the country with the greatest performance in the history of presidential debates. But barring such a grossly unlikely event, there is no reason to think Bush will recover. Ultimately, reasons drive elections. For months, pundits yapped about Bush's lead in the polls without scrutinizing the basis of that lead. Now they're doing the same to Gore. But look closely at the trends beneath the horse-race numbers, and you'll realize why it's practically impossible to turn those numbers around. Gore doesn't just have the lead. On each underlying factor, he has the upside as well.
-snip-
Against Gore, Bush has none of those crutches. Stick a fork in him. He's done.
(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...
In other words,”Don’t Give Up The Ship”?
I seem to have struck a nerve... ;)
I love you Chet 99!
Bush had an amazing ground-game in both 2000 and 2004 along with above-average evangelical turnout. Don’t know if thats happening again this year.
BARRON'S COVER The GOP Victory
By JIM MCTAGUE
JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers, BARRON's claims in their next edition. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years -- and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don't see it.
Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three.
Developing...
http://drudgereport.com/flash7.htm
I mean, as long as you're changing the cherrypicking standard from POLLS to ARTICLES...
but if we get a great turnout, there is no question in my mind that McPalin WIN and win big.....
its the Bush states....Florida and Virginia and Ohio are the crux....hussien better not count on a penn or a washington...they could be McPalins....
so the Bush states minus the two poopers of Iowayoff, or New Mexico, Sarah still wins, I mean McCain still wins....
think of the possibilities.....New Hampshire?..Wisconsin?..Pa....
of course we need Colorado too.
its all about the electoral vote....
What Mc Cain has going for him is he is running against Obama.
Ah! for the Good Old Days, when news was about what happened, instead of what might happen!
But Obama is ruthless. Kerry made a ton of mistakes in his ground game and his advertising. Obama clearly is willing to do anything to become president which means lying and cheating, something which he has practiced from his early drug-using days.
Forget about polls being non-news—now the NEWS is non-news—I seem to recall that a lot of people get their news from Leno and Letterman monologues. And now they have Olberman, NYT and other fictitious sources.
I fear Bush will not get relected this November... :)
Well, it is confession time again. I am an ex-Dem, I voted for the blowhard in a clown suit. Seriously, I don’t know what I was thinking the dude hired a woman to teach him how to act like a man. Sorry, I digress, I do have a point. I remember when this was happening I was happy Gore was so far ahead in the polls. It never crossed my mind he could lose. I lived in Minnesota, so I didn’t even have to vote, but I did and I watched in horror as Bush took state after state and then both candidates hit a wall of chads in Fla. I was one of the few Democrats that didn’t scream about Bush stealing the election. I didn’t really know the technicalities of the situation, but I accepted the Supreme Courts decision. That was the beginning of the end for me being a liberal, my friends didn’t understand how I could be so accepting of Bush “stealing the election”, I was starting to see signs of BDS. I didn’t understand it, I didn’t want Bush for President, but I sure didn’t understand all the rancor. So, to make a short story long, suffice it to say I believe I made the right choice to abandon DNC politics and am happy I left the plantation.
I hear that even if Bush is not elected in November, he plans to remain as President (until at least Jan 20, 2009).
I am not prepared to give Obama credit for anything he has done in this campaign. Personally, I think he is pretty stupid. I do however give a lot of credit to the campaign his handlers are running and the way they shield him. Axelrod and that bunch are doing a superb (Even though I hate it) job. I also credit the inept campaigns of his opponents. Hillary blew it and so far, Mc Cain isn’t doing much better. Who ever heard of making an announcement that you are pulling out of a big state and doing it on the same day as your VP candidate is debating? How dumb can you get?
Well, you know Evangelicals aren't voting Osama bin Biden!
Heh! Good post. :)
Confession they say is good for the soul. It is always good and enlightening to read a conversion story. Light, truth, and the American way trump BDS. Now if there was a way of transferring principles from a party platform to a national issue unrelated to party, and more related to the well being of the country, I would be more comfortable.
Unfortunately it seems we are stuck with the two party system in order to get elected in the first place on a local level much less nationally. The problem for me is the big tent issue, when despite a very conservative platform, candidates and elected officials are allowed to roam all over the map within the bounds of the party, without having to adhere to the principled platform.
Chet, you’re a great American.
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