Well, speaking of oil producers the price mainly depends on OPEC countries, not Russia.
But what really sets oil price is a condition of world (and US) economics. Predicting the state of economics you can predict oil price. Can you? :)))
Of course, you are correct. The law of demand and supply work in the long run. Short term fluctuations can be caused by perceptions.
If you are looking at me to tell you which way the price of oil is heading, you have tapped the wrong guy. If I could, I would own this site. (smile).