[SMCC1]

Hasn’t there been a big increase in the number of registered democrats?? And, unfortunately, there will probably be a larger “youth” turnout. The College yuppies think Obama is a savior. I can’t tell you how many kids I see wearing their damn Obama paraphernalia.

[jveritas]

Historically there have been always more registered democrats on paper but honest pollsters should look at historical data to assert what would be the electorate party ID composition that will show up on elections day. It was never 6% to 12% more democrats who showed up on elections day even if there was in previous elections 6 to 12% more registered democrats on paper.
Also regarding the youth vote, the young people who showed up in the democrat primaries this year are similar to the percentage of those young voters who showed up to vote in previous elections despite the massive effort by the Obama campaign to bring them to vote. There is no real reason to think that they will show up in massive turnout this November.

[1035rep]

In our last Presidential race (2004) it was 37% Dem, 37% GOP, 26% Independent.