Start a life of crime see. Make off with the loot to my hide out, yeah. Get a few pals in the gang and head for the big city where the real money's at ... mmyeah see!
Posted on 10/10/2008 12:33:47 PM PDT by 2banana
OK - the markets are crashing. Things are not going to get better no matter what the government does. I think there are three scenarios in the next 1-5 years.
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Scenario 1:
We have a hard recession.
Stocks to start (slowly) getting into would be:
1. Little to no debt and well run
2. Are profitable
3. Make or produce things people want no matter what
4. Pay a nice dividend
5. OR Bonds that are safe and pay a nice dividend (like munis in well run states)
This would include energy, food, tobacco, alcohol and minerals (gold, silver, copper or uranium) – I would include healthcare but with Obama we are going to nationalize it.
Examples are: AA, CAG, CALM, CCJ, COP, DD, DEO, DNN, DOW, FCX, FO, GE, GLNG, HAL, HSY, KFT, KBR, MMM, MO, NRGY, NUE, PKS, OXY, PEP, PCL, PM, RYN, YUM)
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Scenario 2
Depression. Dollar is killed with all our debt. All markets seize-up except for people who can cash and carry. The USA goes bankrupt.
This is going to lead to much higher interest rates in America, kill the remains of RE, kill off lots of business (jobs) and kill anyone with debt.
This would lead to:
1. Get out of the dollar (examples are: MEAFX, FXY, PSAFX, FXF )
2. Buy foreign currencies (examples are: PRPFX, FXY and FXF)
3. Buy foreign companies that follow 1-4 above and not in US market (examples are: Canadian Royals, BT, BHP, BP, PCU, RIG, RIO, PZE, RTP, SMS, PHG, STO, TCK, UN, VE)
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Scenario 3
In a final bid to stabilize markets and the USA, an Obama admin with a liberal congress:
1. Nationalizes 401ks
2. Devalue the dollar, replaces dollars with new dollar with ALL accounts within America (even ones that hold foreign currencies)
3. Nationalize many remaining industries wiping out stockholders and bondholders
4. Some trail balloons have already been floated and this is exactly what happened in Argentina
The only way to protect yourself would be to:
1. Physically get currency outside America into foreign banks in foreign currencies (ie - drive to Canada or Mexico with some cash)
2. Physically own gold or silver (almost too late as there is very little inventory left - may an gold ETF as GLD, CEF or SLV or try to buy miners in GDX or FSAGX but this is still just "paper")
3. Physically own and occupy productive land (farming, timber or mining)
For the sake of conversation: I own a small company. If the government would invest in my company, a large amount, I could put thousands to work across the nation. Sounds good to me.
wait for a 9 to 1 up day or 2 9 to 1 up days or a rally day + a follow through day and buy, buy, buy
be greedy when others are fearful.
be fearful when others are greedy.
If you’re not afraid of working with K-1’s on your tax return, consider the MLP’s. They’ve been beat down unmercifully, they pay a tax-advantaged dividend, occasionally throw off some tax benefit and the pipeline MLP’s aren’t about to be allowed to go out of business.
BTW - for the record, I’m guessing (and that’s all it is - a guess) Scenario 1.
NEW RULE FOR THIS THREAD: Do not talk in general terms. Give some specific examples (ie - market ticker symbols)
God, gold, guns and guts.
Start a life of crime see. Make off with the loot to my hide out, yeah. Get a few pals in the gang and head for the big city where the real money's at ... mmyeah see!
First tell me if Obama is elected and the democrats have a filibuster proof congress.
;)
Hold on. Are you saying Obama has proposed the government move in and take people's private accounts?
There was a discussion thread, late last night about some Democrats in Congress proposing that the government take over people’s 401Ks and replace them with government bonds which would pay out a fixed annuity, like a second social security. So, no matter how much you had in your 401K, you wouldn’t get any more than the guy who had next to nothing.
It’s only fair, you know. If some people have lost everything and you have lost very little in this market, you need to share what you have. Besides, the government needs your money to help keep those poor people in their houses.
The government has no money to "invest" that it does not steal from me.
Sounds good to me.
No doubt. Just don't expect anyone to protect you from being put up against the wall when the revolution comes and the proletariat decides that they no longer need you to run "the peoples'" company.
Of course, I'll assume that your comments were just "for the sake of conversation", but there really are people that don't see anything wrong with government "investing" in business. It would seem the majority of socialists these days don't know that they're socialists.
You know, there was a BIG article in the WSJ, about 4 or 5 months ago, about what to do to protect your 401K from a market crash. They recommended short term annuities. We had already done that. Your initial investment is protected, the interest is the only risk that you take, and you can get them for terms as short as three years.
Sorry, you'll run into Obama, Franklin Raines and their real estate buddies there already in the big city life of crime.
Maybe you should just get into nihilistic violence... no, wait, Obama, Ayers and their Weather Underground friends are already there.
How about vote fraud for hire... oops, Obama, ACORN and the Daley family have already done it.
I wouldn’t take their money. Once money is accepted from the Feds, you are obligated beyond belief. Socialist don’t care about things like that. People forget, the only socialists that prosper are the ones at the top. It is a phony system that lies to their people.
401K is just a tax rule created by Congress. They can change the rules anytime they like. It is not fair for those who made long term decisions based on the rules when they funded their accounts.
For those in a similar situation as I am, I have a very effective plan...
I owe $114,000 on my house. I have sold all the stock in my 401(k) and 403(b), leaving me with $128,000 in cash accounts in my retirement savings. I have enough non-retirement cash assets (life insurance, savings bonds, etc.) to pay off about $36,000 of my mortgage, leaving a mortgage of about $78,000.
About $101,000 of my retirement money is in a 403(b). There is a nice feature of 403(b)’s that allows you to borrow 1/2 of your vested amount, up to a maximum of $50,000 per year. My plan requires me to repay the loan in 5 years at 6% APR. It took a little work in Excel, but I found a “sweet spot” in which I can borrow $18,500 from my 403(b) and pay my mortgage down even further. Then, after 16 months, I’ll have paid off enough of both the mortgage and the 403(b) loan to redo the loan and pay off the rest of the mortgage.
What I like about this plan is that the money I had been putting into retirement now is going to pay off my mortgage (a more solid retirement investment), AND I’m saving over $51,000 in interest over the rest of my mortgage, AND I’m paying myself 6% interest for the next 5 years. Not a bad return during these economic times.
So I’m getting the benefit of using my tax-deferred money now, without paying any taxes or penalties.
I propose an addition to Scenario 1.
— Stocks of companies that are playing a demonstrable role in reducing dependence on foreign oil.
In this post modern era, the left gets to redefine, “fair”. That’s what President Clinton meant when he said, “It depends on what the definition of ‘is’, is.” It’s no longer just moral relativity, it’s relativity of truth, law, freedom, and justice.
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