Posted on 10/14/2008 3:58:57 PM PDT by davek70
True, although it’s closer to 4 points.
“ZOGBY WEDNESDAY: OBAMA 48.2%, MCCAIN 44.4%... NOT SURE 7.4%... DEVELOPING...”
But if Zogby like today went to +6, then you would run to a poll where you can find some solace.
Not too long ago, Zogby was the MOST HATED pollster on this board.
These days he is over estimating the bradley effect, so now everyone loves him.
Also, down 3.6, that’s hurting.
For Democrat, TIE is a win. For Republican to win, you need at least +3% cushion.
The margin of error on this poll is +-14
Could you explain that again so you can understand it?
As have all the fraudulent ACORN voter registrations.
“It wasn’t 20 points, but 28 points — from McCain +10 (49-39) to Obama +18 (53-39). Gallup has just reported some movement in Independent support to Obama, but nothing like this. “
Oops, my spellchecker screwed up. That should be 51-33, not 53-39. The 18 points is right. I need to get my eyes checked or something.
You won’t so there is no point.
A 14 point lead in national polls mean Jeremiah Wright apprentice is going to win 45 states. Do you really believe this crap? Get real.
Reread it.
I do not agree.
However, if that potential is correct, then a guerilla warfare scenario is likely.
There will never be another civil war, but there may be “domestic terrorists” fighting for their rights.
“Here’s the breakdown, from page 20 of the poll.
Total Respondents 1070
Unweighted Percentage Weighted Percentage
Registered Voters 972 100.00% 902 100.00%
Reg. Voters – Democrats 371 38% 338 37%
Reg. Voters – Republicans 295 30% 263 29%
Reg. Voters – Independents 306 31% 301 33%
Does anyone believe that there are more independents than Republicans?”
Not only that, but that these independents would lean Democratic by 18 points? I didn’t even think about that when I did my own demolition job on this poll a few posts ago. This isn’t a cooked poll, but a burnt crisp poll. In fact, I’m not sure I have ever seen a CBS poll that was more blatantly fraudulent than this one — and that’s saying something.
Here is the real story of how people vote in real elections. As for how Independentst typically vote, click upon the “Presidential Elections” tab.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/independents/data-presidential.html
Nate Silver adds it up as 7-8% actual lead + 3% + 3% margin of error:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/cbsnyt-poll-preempt.html#comments
This against human nature that people can change within a week in such a drastic matter. The liberal media are fabricating these polls because they are scared to death of McCain attacks on Jeremiah Wright apprentice character and associations/alliances . They know that what destroy Obama is Obama himself once he is exposed. They are skewing the polls royally thinking that they can force McCain to stop the attacks.
I think they forgot a zero. Doesn’t Hussein have a 140% percent lead? Really shoddy polling by CBS and the NY Slimes.
Sarcasm alert! Just in case anyone did not figure that out by now.
JoMa
Hi PhiKapMom!
I don’t know if they are doing that, but from what I have gathered, they will ask callers certain key questions to “gage voters support” and then determine by their answers how likely they are to vote.
In actual elections, the Independent vote is typically split almost right down the middle. McCain has actually been polling slightly better than that in most polls.
This CBS poll is one of the worst I have ever seen. Someone else pointed out that not only is CBS assuming that more Independents will vote than Republicans — something that has never happened before — but also that these Independents will be 17 points more Democratic than they were in 2004, 21 points more Democratic than they were in 2000, etc.
I really think that they deliberately oversampled Democrats by mislabeling a big chunk of them as Independents. There is no other way to get polling results like this. The more I think about this, the more I suspect blatant poll fraud. That’s worse than cooking a poll. It’s cooking a poll and then lying about it.
As reported accurately, the first “Kill him” was shouted after a comment about Bill Ayers, NOT NObama. Now we have leftie plants, as Tammy Bruce was talking about yesterday, who are ginning it up for their media minions.
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