Posted on 10/14/2008 3:58:57 PM PDT by davek70
No weasling away needed. Zogby even had Gor up in his last poll and he was infact correct. Gor did win the popular vote.
Elian Gonzalez tripped him up in Florida and Jeb was able to protect his little bro. Jews for Buchanan helped.
Whole lots of luck.
He dropped down from a higher league!
What Zogby said is not relevant to your claim.
Elian Gonzalez tripped him up in Florida and Jeb was able to protect his little bro. Jews for Buchanan helped.
We weren't talking about any of that. You are trying again to squirm away from the original topic.
You said that a Republican has to win the popular vote by 3% to win the election. Yet Gore won the popular vote outright in 2000, and still lost. This flatly disproves your statement.
Do you have the honesty to admit you were mistaken?
Be honest. I didn't call you a name.
I said, accurately enough, that your statement was idiotic.
... after he lost his fastball...
Listen 536 votes was it? It was an odditty. W’s goose was cooked, he got very lucky. End of story.
Obviously, you don't understand the concept of Grammar.
In 2000, Al Gore received 50,999,897 votes, or 48.38% of the popular vote.
George W. Bush received 50,456,002 votes, or 47.87% of the popular vote.
In other words, Bush received almost exactly 3.5% less than you said a Republican must have to win a presidential election.
Are you ready to admit your mistake yet, or would you prefer to change the subject some more?
Do you have Party ID Data from polls conducted over the last six months?
That would be good data if you were conduction a poll in 2006 but it does not reflect party ID data for 2008.
What I do know is this, Historically going back to 1996, the Dem's have never had more then a 4 point advantage. 2006 was an extremely bad year for Republicans but they only outvoted us by 2 points. I think they will definitely have a higher advantage this year, but I have not seen any evidence that they will outvote us by more then they did in 2000 or 1996.
The fact is, we won't know until election day. In 2004 polls were figuring a 3 point Dem advantage, we ended up tieing with the deems.
My best guess is we will see a 40D-36R-24I turn out.
You see, the lesson here is for you.
Bush went in ahead in polls, except Gore was closing in.
Bush’s problem was that he didn’t have enough margin to protect against Gor surge.
He got lucky in Florida.
So ofcourse EVs got him the Presidency, but the probability of that phenomenon ocurring now is almost none.
As a matter of fact there is NO WAY IN HELL that McCain wins the popular vote.
His best hope is like 5-6 recounts and squeezing out 500 vote victories in 6-7 States.
After riots are over, I am sure he would have a chance to settle down in his new Presidency.
If anything your example supports my point.
Conventional wisdom besides Zogby was that Bush was ahead by point or two.
Instead he got beat in popular vote.
Which is why I am saying that now more than ever when the Dem ground game is at its peak and they have registration and resources advantage, for McCain to win, he really needs to by up by at least 3.
Otherwise, he won’t win popular vote and oddity like 2000 is unlikely to repeat.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
Anyone that buys this is dumber than a box of rocks.
The objective is to get those anti-Obama Democrats out of the Democrat column.
Good.
No, they are based on subjective decisions, nice try.
Please tell me how you would design a sample frame. Would you attempt to match your sample frame to current Census Tract data and if so would you weight any populations within the population?
How would you account for any populations that were under represented?
Would you look at Party ID Data from the last 20-30 years, look at party ID Data from the last 3-6 months or would you disregard all previous party ID Date?
What would be your sample size?
What MoE would you find acceptable?
What Response Rate would you aim for?
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