Posted on 10/14/2008 5:32:35 PM PDT by seanrobins
This new CBS News/New York Times poll, which is being touted with a 14-POINT LEAD for Obama, up from THIREE POINTS in the same poll a week ago . . . IS A FRAUD!
A peek into the "internals" of the Poll (that is - where the numbers come from) shows this fraud:
Total Respondents 1070
UNWEIGHTED WEIGHTED
Registered Voters 972 902
Democrats 371 338
Republicans 295 263
Independents 306 301
*Effective Likely Voters 699
*Every registered voter is included in the likely voter model, and is assigned a probability of voting, which is used to calculate the likely voter results. The sum of these probabilities is the effective number of likely voters.
- - - - -
So... according to the data CBS/NYT is using, not only have they heavily oversampled Democrats over Republicans, but they had hideously oversampled Independants.
PLUS... they have defined ALL registered voters and being LIKELY voters, which any reputable pollster will tell you is nonesense.
...
Here is the spin CBS/NYT is giving their "poll":
- - - - - - - - - -
THE RACE FOR PRESIDENT: BEFORE THE FINAL DEBATE
October 10-13, 2008
. . .
Heading into the final debate, the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden has widened its lead over the Republicans, John McCain and Sarah Palin. 53% of likely voters support Obama/Biden while 39% support McCain/Palin. Prior to last week’s Town Hall debate, the Democrats held a 3-point edge among likely voters.
Independents have swung back and forth between the two candidates for the last month, but Obama has opened up a significant lead with this key group. . . .
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
notice how they emphasize their polls in relation to the debate. It was close at the debates but now they are blown out.
And to think only four years ago it was fraudulent documents CBS was peddling.
Sheppy on FNC was having an Obamagasm over this poll just a while ago. 14 points. In your dreams. ROTFL!
Forged documents fraudulent polls. CBS, all lies all the time.
Pure propaganda
NYT/CBS shaould at least pay their proles a decent wage.
Anything coming out of a Sulzberger/Rather/Mapes cabal "POLL" is useless.
I wonder if they have a meeting to decide what they want the poll result to be before they conduct the poll?
A shift from 3 points to 14 in just 6 days? I don’t think it’s humanly possible.
None of the other polls show that big of a swing to the ZerO since the debate. C-BS indeed.
Can anyone explain what the theory is behind this “oversampling of Dems”?
They have figured out how they can get whatever result they want by how many dems they oversample.
Suppress enthusiasim, oldest trick in the book
A new CBSABCNBCCNNMSNBCCNBCALJEZZERATimeNewsWeek Poll finds Barak H. Obama increasing his margin to a staggering 95% of likely voters to McCain's 2.7%. When questioned, McCain adviser's indicated "a significant scaling back of efforts in all states except Arizona and Alaska". One insider was overheard exclaiming, "crap, it's all over but the crying and it seems like the fat lady has sung".
Stand by for further updates from the CBSABCNBCCNNMSNBCCNBCALJEZZERATimeNewsWeek news-desk.
I adjusted the weights to be about 35% Dem 35% R and 30% Indie. Then I assumed that Obama had 88% of the Dems and 15% of the Rs. Then I assumed that McCain had 85% of the Rs and 12% of the Ds, which off the top of my head is about what I remember from other polls.
Because of the huge alleged lead among so-called indies, even after adjusting for a more even weight in the parties, I could only get it to 50-44 for Obama.
Its even simpler to explain this one. Everywhere you look, they are tryinbg to peddle the idea that the Ayers associations are hurting the McCain campaign. So what a better way than to come up with a poll that shows a dramatic swing during the period when the Ayers issue has been front and center. They are despirate over this issue and are willing to do anything with the combined collective (no pun intended) to make McCain stop it because they have no real answer to counter it that will pass the straight face test.
And it works, too. I get so depressed when I see the polls even when I am about 95% sure it is fake. Just imagine how depressed people get when they don’t know they are fake. I certainly hope McCain and Palin know they are bogus. They are trying to convince people that Sarah Palin is the cause of the sinking numbers. If that were true why would she be drawing such huge enthusiastic crowds? Obamas crowds are getting way way smaller. I noticed the media never talks about it anymore. And of course they never mention the size of the McCain/Palin rallies. The only clear pictures we get is when someone from FR is there and takes some pictures. All we ever get from the media is those ridiculous leg shots with 10 or 15 people in view.
LOL They are getting very close to overplaying their hands right now.
Rush was reading an article yesterday that said Indies were evenly split betweem Obama and McCain.
>>>Can anyone explain what the theory is behind this “oversampling of Dems”?
Sure: To insure better numbers for the Dems in a poll that asks “Who do you want for President,” simply ASK MORE DEMOCRATS... ignore their normal statistical occurrence, and ask TOO MANY Dems and too few Repubs.
Here, they’re also asking TOO TOO MANY Indies.....
Of course if Obama loses, they will either say the Republicans stole the election or that people are racists and lied to the pollsters. I wonder when the McCain camp is going to wake up and start accusing the dems of being sexists.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.