That means in reality that McCain/Palin are in the lead. you have to always add at least 5 points onto the Republican percent due to pollster bias.
GP, your theory is correct. This election cycle the gap has been about 5.5 - 7.0 pts if all of the internals I’ve seen sing to me the way they should. Why would Obama spend time in FL if he thought it was in the bag? Why is McCain/Palin in Maine if they didn’t think they had a chance? Keep looking past the headlines and at the internals and watch the pollsters start closing the gap also, they have to be able to be within a few points at the end total to have any credibility, also, ignore intrade, there are some fat RAT traders (traitors- Soros) who dont mind losing some change to make it look like Obambi has got it nailed down.