Posted on 10/20/2008 9:45:41 AM PDT by tatown
Obama-46.7% (+0.1%)
McCain-41.4% (-0.1%)
Undecided-11.9% (Unchanged)
(Excerpt) Read more at tipponline.com ...
Again, lots of “wiggling” around a now 4-5 point spread. If McCain gets it to two, he wins the EC. Even now, with “Bradley,” it’s close.
*Ping*
Could be after this election the Bradley effect will be renamed the Borat O’bama effect..
Since IBD rounds their numbers to whole numbers this will probably show a 1-point drop for McCain since yesterday, even thought the change was only 0.1%.
Yes, I’ve read a lot of comments about how McCain would be in a good position is he were down by 5 or less going into the last two weeks. Here we are and he’s there.
What do you think of Ras having O up 10 in VA? Considering Bush won the state by 8 just four years ago, this seems astounding, if even close to accurate.
Since IBD rounds their numbers to whole numbers this will probably show a 1-point drop for McCain since yesterday, even thought the change was only 0.1%.
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I think you mean .2% since there was a .1% change for each candidate.
Very nice! Yech Shimesh!
Mason-Dixon has McCain up a couple in VA. I find Ras’s polls this year way off. Have no idea why. All I know is that his stuff on OH is way off, both by our own internals and by the last two public polls we have here (McCain leads in all of them).
randita wrote:
What do you think of Ras having O up 10 in VA? Considering Bush won the state by 8 just four years ago, this seems astounding, if even close to accurate.
Response:
Honestly, this is one of those times where common sense is all that is needed.
One week ago (10/13/08), Rasmussen released a poll for Virginia that showed Obama leading 50-47. Does anyone really believe there were any events during the last 7 days that would cause a 3-point race to become a 10-point race?
-Bob
Seriously folks do you know how easy it is for polls to shift 3 and 5 points form one day to another? To shift the polls by 2%, 3%, 4% and even 5% all what needs to happen is for the pollster to call just few more people from blue counties than red counties, or just a tiny portion of the sample lying to the pollsters and saying that they are voting for Obama than voting for McCain. There are freepers who are bragging that they lied to the pollsters and told them that they will vote for Obama. I think it is stupid to do so but we are seeing living proof of this happing on this forum.
Also let us not forget that most of the polls are over sampling democrats by 6 to 12 points on the national level and on the state level. In the last 40 years the democrats never got more than 4 points advantage in party ID when the real ballots were cast.
Accurate polls should include the following. Poll each state individually. Poll each county in each state individually. The sample should range form 1,000 to 5,000 Likely Voters in each county depending on the size the county. Used historic data from previous elections to get a better prediction for party ID. Not a single polling firm is coming close to any of the above because it is very expensive and time consuming to do so. Only the campaign polls and both parties are doing such expensive polling because they have the money to spend and because they need to be realistic and know where they stand so they know how to campaign in a given state and what voter group to target. National polls are the most inaccurate ones including the national tracking polls.
Stop the doom and gloom and remember President Kerry and President Gore who won many media polls and they won the exit polls. McCain will never catch to Obama in the media polls and the exit polls on November 4th will show Obama winning big as they did show Kerry and Gore winning big.
The fundamentals of this race have not really changed despite all the massive events that occurred in the last two months including the collapse of Wall Street and the credit market. At the end when the American people go to the voting booth they are going to ask themselves do we trust Barack Obama to be President? Do we want a socialist and a defeatist to be President? Do we want Jeremiah Wright apprentice to be President? Do we want someone with such a shady background and radical connections to be President?
The majority of voters will answer no to the above questions and Obama will lose the elections.
Go and vote for McCain/Palin. Ask you family, friends, neighbors, and colleagues to vote for McCain/Palin. Ask them to vote for America.
Go and vote. Let us win this one for our beloved America.
Weekend polling.
HANG TOUGH GUYS ! We’re gonna win it but we all have to VOTE !
You'll have to forgive me if I believe that unpublished "internals" don't have as much weight as publically released polls, skewed as they are.
Where is the big boost from Sarah Palin’s performance on Saturday Night Live that everyone was predicting?
Who was the genius who told Sarah to go on that show?
If you don't buy into this you will be investigated by all major media outlets...
Obviously we all hope you are right, but please don’t post stuff if it is simply meant to keep the troops bucked up.
Still like to know where Obama is getting ALL his money.
Almost 12 percent undecided,that’s alot.
Yes, that is a lot at this point in the race, which is good.
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